Since 1999, the surface vegetation coverage in the Yanhe River Basin has undergone constant change. The ecological environment in the basin has improved partially; however, water scarcity remains a critical issue for the Loess Plateau. The current quantitative analysis of runoff evolution affected by climatic and anthropogenic elements in the study area is insufficient. To evaluate the influence of anthropogenic elements and climatic variation on runoff evolution, we used the SWAT hydrological model to study key hydrological processes under different simulation scenarios along the river basin in this study. Overall, the runoff volume of the Yanhe River Basin showed a significant downward trend, although different trends were observed over different periods. Runoff declined from 1981 to 1998 and increased after 1998. A comparative analysis of three different scenarios shows that climate change contributes approximately twice as much to runoff evolution as land use changes. Climate change causes runoff to decrease by 65.64%, whereas land use change causes runoff to increase by 34.36%. The decrease in runoff in small watersheds is primarily due to climatic factors, whereas vegetation restoration is beneficial to the increase in runoff in small watersheds. The research results will be valuable in comprehending the quantitative influence of climatic and anthropogenic factors on the hydrological evolution of the Yellow River Valley.

自1999年以来，沿河流域的地表植被覆盖率一直在变化。流域的生态环境已有部分改善。然而，水短缺仍然是黄土高原的关键问题。目前研究区域受气候和人为因素影响的径流演变的定量分析是不够的。为了评估人为因素和气候变化对径流演变的影响，我们使用SWAT水文模型研究了流域不同模拟情景下的关键水文过程。总体而言，尽管在不同时期观察到不同的趋势，但延河流域的径流量呈现出明显的下降趋势。径流量从1981年到1998年下降，并在1998年以后增加。对三种不同情况的比较分析表明，气候变化对径流演变的贡献大约是土地利用变化的两倍。气候变化导致径流减少65.64％，而土地利用变化导致径流增加34.36％。小流域径流的减少主要是由于气候因素，而植被恢复有利于小流域径流的增加。研究结果对于理解气候和人为因素对黄河流域水文演变的定量影响具有重要价值。36％。小流域径流的减少主要是由于气候因素，而植被恢复有利于小流域径流的增加。研究结果对于理解气候和人为因素对黄河流域水文演变的定量影响具有重要价值。36％。小流域径流的减少主要是由于气候因素，而植被恢复有利于小流域径流的增加。研究结果对于理解气候和人为因素对黄河流域水文演变的定量影响具有重要价值。