In this study, the suitability of major crops currently growing in three case study basins in Catalonia (NE Spain) was assessed for the first half of the 21st century. For this purpose, an estimation was made of net hydric needs (NHN) and a set of agroclimatic parameters. Climate change impacts were estimated at sub-basin level using temperature and precipitation temporal series based on the Third Report on Climate Change in Catalonia under the RCP4.5 scenario. Potential crop evapotranspiration (ETc, FAO procedure) and monthly water balance considering soil water holding capacity were used to estimate actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and NHN. Over the period studied, NHN would generally rise, with small (+ 0.1%) to high (+ 6.6%) increases in the 2020 s and moderate (+ 3.9%) to high (+ 6.7%) increases in the 2040 s. Dynamics would be different for the three basins and general trends vary from crop to crop. At all events, a generalized increase in NHN together with lower water availability could severely limit crop productivity in the case of both rainfed and irrigated crops (irrigation restrictions). Phenological changes could represent a greater constraint for crop productivity. Overall, the number of frost days will decrease (from −0.1 days in March to −8.7 days in April) in the three basins, while extremely hot days will increase (from + 0.3 days in July to + 3.8 days in August). Growth cycles will begin earlier (from −1 days to −12 days for crops with a base temperature of 10 °C), and for some crops they will be shorter (from −8 days to −27 days in the case of maize and up to −10 days in the case of vines). The impacts of climate change in the three basins could result in significant limitations for crops if adaptive strategies beyond irrigation and growing cycle issues are not applied. The results of this study could serve as a basis for the development of adaptation strategies to improve and maintain agriculture in the case study basins and in similar regions.

在这项研究中，评估了21世纪上半叶在加泰罗尼亚（西班牙东北部）三个案例研究盆地中目前种植的主要农作物的适宜性。为此，对净水需要量（NHN）和一组农业气候参数进行了估算。根据RCP4.5情景下加泰罗尼亚的第三次气候变化报告，使用温度和降水时间序列在次流域水平估计了气候变化影响。考虑土壤持水量的潜在作物蒸散量（ETc，FAO程序）和月水平衡被用于估算实际蒸散量（ETa）和NHN。在所研究的时期内，NHN通常会上升，到2020 s小幅（+ 0.1％）到高（+ 6.6％）增长，到2040 s中等（+ 3.9％）到高（+ 6.7％）增长。三个流域的动力学将有所不同，并且总体趋势因作物而异。无论如何，在雨养和灌溉作物的情况下，NHN的普遍增加以及可用水量的减少会严重限制作物的生产力（灌溉限制）。物候变化可能代表着对作物生产力的更大限制。总体而言，三个盆地的霜冻天数将减少（从3月的-0.1天减少到4月的-8.7天），而极端炎热的天数将增加（从7月的+0.3天增加到8月的3.8天）。生长周期将较早开始（基本温度为10°C的作物从-1天到-12天），而对于某些作物，生长周期会更短（对于玉米及以上，从-8天到-27天。藤蔓至-10天）。如果不采用除灌溉和生长周期问题以外的适应性策略，这三个流域的气候变化影响可能对作物造成重大限制。这项研究的结果可以作为制定适应策略的基础，以在案例研究盆地和类似地区改善和维持农业。