SARS-CoV-2, with an infection fatality rate between 0.5 and 1%, has spread to all corners of the globe and infected millions of people. While vaccination is essential to protect against the virus and halt community transmission, rapidly making and delivering safe and efficacious vaccines presents unique development, manufacturing, supply chain, delivery, and post-market surveillance challenges. Despite the large number of vaccines in or entering the clinic, it is unclear how many candidates will meet regulatory requirements and which vaccine strategy will most effectively lead to sustained, population-wide immunity. Interviews with experts from biopharmaceutical companies, regulatory and multilateral organizations, non-profit foundations, and academic research groups, complemented with extensive literature review, informed the development of a framework for understanding the factors leading to population-wide immunity against SARS-CoV-2, in particular considering the role of vaccines. This paper presents a systems-level modeling framework to guide the development of analytical tools aimed at informing time-critical decisions to make vaccines globally and equitably accessible. Such a framework can be used for scenario planning and evaluating tradeoffs across access strategies. It highlights the diverse and powerful ways in which data can be used to evaluate future risks and strategically allocate limited resources.

中文翻译：

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评估针对COVID-19大流行的疫苗策略的建模框架

SARS-CoV-2的致死率在0.5％至1％之间，已传播到全球各个角落，并感染了数百万人。尽管接种疫苗对于预防病毒和阻止社区传播至关重要，但快速制作和交付安全有效的疫苗却面临着独特的开发，制造，供应链，交付和上市后监管挑战。尽管进入诊所或进入诊所的疫苗数量众多，但尚不清楚有多少候选疫苗将符合法规要求，哪种疫苗策略将最有效地导致持续的全人群免疫。对生物制药公司，监管和多边组织，非营利基金会和学术研究小组的专家进行的访谈，并辅以大量的文献综述，通报了一个框架的发展，以了解导致人群抗SARS-CoV-2免疫的因素，尤其是考虑到疫苗的作用。本文提出了一个系统级的建模框架，以指导分析工具的开发，旨在告知对时间有严格要求的决策，以使疫苗在全球范围内公平获得。这样的框架可用于方案规划和评估跨访问策略的权衡。它强调了可以使用多种数据来评估未来风险并从战略上分配有限资源的强大方式。本文提出了一个系统级的建模框架，以指导分析工具的开发，旨在告知对时间有严格要求的决策，以使疫苗在全球范围内公平获得。这样的框架可用于方案规划和评估跨访问策略的权衡。它强调了可以使用多种数据来评估未来风险并从战略上分配有限资源的强大方式。本文提出了一个系统级的建模框架，以指导分析工具的开发，旨在告知对时间有严格要求的决策，以使疫苗在全球范围内公平获得。这样的框架可用于方案规划和评估跨访问策略的权衡。它着重介绍了可用于数据评估未来风险和战略性分配有限资源的多种强大方法。