The objective of this paper is the design of a predictive model of students’ desertion in Educational Institutions based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The proposed model is based on a weighted sum of individual probabilities of desertion associated with various factors (explanatory variables) by experts in the combined use of the AHP and the Ratings technique for the evaluation of the explanatory variables of the model. This proposal was applied in an Institution of Higher Education in Chile. To evaluate the predictive performance of the method, the results were compared with those obtained using Logistic Regression (RL) and with the actual retention of the students in one year. It was found that the proposed method had a 64.6% level of predictability, whereas the model with logistic regression had a 69.9%. It is concluded that it is possible to predict student desertion with a simple model based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process.

本文的目的是设计一个基于层次分析法（AHP）的教育机构学生逃学预测模型。所提出的模型是基于专家在结合使用AHP和Ratings技术评估模型的解释变量的过程中与各种因素（解释变量）相关的单个荒漠概率的加权总和。该建议已在智利的高等教育机构中应用。为了评估该方法的预测性能，将结果与使用Logistic回归（RL）获得的结果以及一年中学生的实际留存率进行了比较。发现该方法的可预测性水平为64.6％，而具有逻辑回归的模型的可预测性水平为69.9％。