Trade in services has made phenomenal strides in the globalisation era with the advent of a technology revolution, fragmentation in production processes and rapid digitisation. The case of India has been exemplary, as she bypasses her sluggish growth in goods exports to emerge as a world leader in commercial services. By churning out positive net exports since 2003, this trade sector has considerably eased the country’s unfavourable current-account position. Further, the relatively robust performance of the country’s service exports in the face of the Great Recession of 2008–2009 has ignited speculations over its suitability as an instrument of sustainable economic growth. Though the stupendous growth of India’s export of services is well documented, not much has been said regarding consistency in this growth. Our study identifies that against the backdrop of key macroeconomic developments, the growth performance of the country’s real export of services has undergone vivid variations. The long-term trend of these exports, though increasing, is choppy. We identify three structural regimes in the course of these exports: 1975–1993, 1994–2004 and 2005–2018. We conscientiously deduce that the phenomenal growth of real service exports that accrued in the 1990s has been slowly wearing out post 2005. The slowdown has both cyclical and structural elements to it and corresponds to the changing cyclicality of service exports, subduing demand, slowing global value chains (GVCs) and post-crisis mood of protectionism.

JEL Codes: F14, C32, E32

随着技术革命的出现，生产流程的分散和快速数字化的出现，服务贸易在全球化时代取得了长足的进步。印度的例子堪称典范，因为她绕过了商品出口的缓慢增长而成为商业服务的世界领导者。自2003年以来，该国的贸易部门净赚正出口，从而大大缓解了该国经常账户的不利状况。此外，面对2008-2009年的大萧条，该国服务出口的相对强劲表现，引发了人们对其是否适合作为可持续经济增长手段的猜测。尽管有充分的证据证明印度的服务出口出现了惊人的增长，但关于这种增长的一致性并没有说太多。我们的研究表明，在关键的宏观经济发展的背景下，该国实际服务出口的增长表现发生了生动的变化。这些出口的长期趋势尽管有所增加，但仍然不稳定。我们确定了这些出口过程中的三种结构性制度：1975–1993、1994–2004和2005–2018。我们认真地推论，1990年代以来，实际服务出口的惊人增长在2005年后已逐渐消失。这种放缓既具有周期性，也具有结构性因素，与服务出口的周期性变化，需求减弱，全球价值减缓相对应。链和危机后的保护主义情绪。这些出口的长期趋势尽管有所增加，但仍然不稳定。我们确定了这些出口过程中的三种结构性制度：1975–1993、1994–2004和2005–2018。我们认真地推论，1990年代以来，实际服务出口的惊人增长在2005年后已逐渐消失。这种放缓既具有周期性，也具有结构性因素，与服务出口的周期性变化，需求减弱，全球价值减缓相对应。链和危机后的保护主义情绪。这些出口的长期趋势虽然有所增加，但仍然不稳定。我们确定了这些出口过程中的三种结构性制度：1975–1993、1994–2004和2005–2018。我们认真地推论，1990年代以来，实际服务出口的惊人增长在2005年后已逐渐消失。这种放缓既具有周期性，也具有结构性因素，与服务出口的周期性变化，需求减弱，全球价值减缓相对应。链和危机后的保护主义情绪。

JEL代码： F14，C32，E32