The aim of this article is to examine export determinants of Ethiopian coffee to 31 trade partner countries using a dynamic gravity model and system generalised moment method of estimation (GMM) for the period 1998–2016. Descriptive results showed that Ethiopia was exporting only 39% of its total coffee production, and 53.5% and 34.13% of Ethiopian coffee exports were directed to European and Asian countries, respectively, over the period 1998–2016. Regression results revealed that trade openness, population size of Ethiopia, foreign direct investment and institutional quality index of Ethiopia are positively and significantly affecting volume of Ethiopian coffee export. But population of partner countries, weighted distance, lagged export volume and real exchange rate are negatively and significantly influencing export volume of Ethiopian coffee. Hence, Ethiopia needs to diversify its export destinations and export items a way from primary agricultural exports to secondary industrial exports in order to secure dependable source of foreign currency. Also, controlling corruption, increasing government effectiveness, ensuring political stability promotion of foreign direct investment and encouraging trade liberalisation would help to boost the volume of Ethiopian coffee export.

JEL Codes: F12, F13, F14

本文的目的是使用动态引力模型和系统广义矩估计法（GMM）研究1998-2016年期间埃塞俄比亚咖啡向31个贸易伙伴国家的出口决定因素。描述性结果显示，在1998年至2016年期间，埃塞俄比亚仅出口了其咖啡总产量的39％，埃塞俄比亚咖啡出口的53.5％和34.13％分别销往了欧洲和亚洲国家。回归结果显示，贸易开放性，埃塞俄比亚的人口规模，埃塞俄比亚的外国直接投资和机构质量指数均对埃塞俄比亚咖啡出口量产生积极且显着的影响。但是伙伴国家的人口，加权距离，滞后的出口量和实际汇率都对埃塞俄比亚咖啡的出口量产生负面影响并产生重大影响。因此，埃塞俄比亚需要使其出口目的地和出口项目多样化，从初级农产品出口到次级工业出口，以确保可靠的外汇来源。此外，控制腐败，提高政府效力，确保促进外国直接投资的政治稳定以及鼓励贸易自由化将有助于增加埃塞俄比亚咖啡的出口量。

JEL代码： F12，F13，F14