India shares its majority of international trade with the United States of America. But a huge amount of discrepancy is frequently observed in the recorded bilateral trade statistics between these two countries. The main reasons are caused by several restrictions prevailing on the account of international trade in India. Export is found to be under-reported consistently whereas import data shows both over and under mis-invoicing in a periodic swing. This paper focuses on the determinants of this data fabrication with the help of empirical exercises. Several macroeconomic policy variables are taken to build up an econometric model and are tested statistically with the help of time series econometrics. Among all, relative interest rate plays the most important role to influence export and import mis-invoicing, followed by spot exchange rate and forward exchange rate. The exercise also finds a uni-directional causal relationship from import mis-invoicing of a period to export mis-invoicing of the next period. JEL Codes: C10, C13, C61, F13, F14, F21, K42

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印度和美国之间的贸易错误发票：一项实证研究

印度与美利坚合众国分享其大部分国际贸易。但是，在记录的两国双边贸易统计数据中，经常观察到巨大的差异。主要原因是印度在国际贸易方面普遍存在的一些限制。发现出口一直被低估，而进口数据则显示出在周期性波动中高估和低估的错误发票。本文在实证练习的帮助下重点研究了这种数据制造的决定因素。几个宏观经济政策变量被用来建立一个计量经济模型，并在时间序列计量经济学的帮助下进行统计检验。其中，相对利率对进出口误报的影响最为重要，其次是即期汇率和远期汇率。该练习还发现了从一个时期的进口错误发票到下一个时期的出口错误发票的单向因果关系。JEL 代码：C10、C13、C61、F13、F14、F21、K42