Executive Summary

In the past decade, farm loan waivers have become a policy instrument to alleviate the financial distress of farmers. Despite agreement on the theoretical rationale for such debt forgiveness and its deep contextual relevance, many fear that in the long run, loan waivers might vitiate the repayment culture in the farm sector and undermine the financial status of banks. At present, critiques of large-scale loan waivers rest on limited evidence. This article reviews and synthesizes existing research and available data on the implications of loan waivers, especially for the flow of credit to farmers from banks. On most of the issues, such as farmer well-being and repayment culture, there seems to be mixed evidence on the consequences of debt waivers. Credible evidence on macroeconomic implications is limited, mainly on account of methodological challenges. This article concludes that even if loan waivers are an inappropriate strategy to support farm incomes in sustainable ways, the wide-ranging negative impacts on the formal banking sector are perhaps overstated. A more fruitful approach would be to focus on whether loan waivers can be designed to reduce the possible negative consequences for the formal banking system as well as for macroeconomic system. The article identifies three possible instruments—loan insurance products that will help banks cope with the consequences of large-scale defaults. Second, to explore the creation of a distress fund that will cushion state finances, should there be a need for debt waivers. Third, it would be useful to consider the operation of debt relief commissions to have an ongoing process for debt waivers.

执行摘要

在过去的十年中，免除农业贷款已成为减轻农民财务困境的政策工具。尽管就免除此类债务的理论依据及其与背景之间的深刻联系达成了共识，但许多人担心，从长远来看，免除贷款可能会破坏农业部门的还款文化并破坏银行的财务状况。目前，对大规模贷款减免的批评只是基于有限的证据。本文回顾并综合了有关免除贷款所产生的影响的现有研究和可用数据，特别是对于银行向农民提供的信贷流量。在大多数问题上，例如农民的福祉和还款文化，似乎对债务免除的后果有混杂的证据。关于宏观经济影响的可靠证据有限，主要是由于方法上的挑战。本文的结论是，即使放弃贷款是以可持续方式支持农业收入的不合适策略，对正规银行业的广泛负面影响也可能被夸大了。更加富有成效的方法将集中于是否可以设计贷款豁免，以减少对正规银行系统以及对宏观经济系统可能产生的负面影响。本文确定了三种可能的工具-贷款保险产品，可以帮助银行应对大规模违约的后果。其次，在需要减免债务的情况下，探索建立一个可以减轻国家财政负担的救助基金。第三，考虑减免债务委员会的运作以使债务免除具有持续的程序将是有用的。本文的结论是，即使放弃贷款是不可持续的方式来支持农业收入的适当策略，对正规银行业的广泛负面影响也可能被夸大了。更加富有成效的方法将集中于是否可以设计贷款豁免，以减少对正规银行系统以及宏观经济系统可能产生的负面影响。本文确定了三种可能的工具-贷款保险产品，可以帮助银行应对大规模违约的后果。其次，在需要减免债务的情况下，探索建立一个可以减轻国家财政负担的救助基金。第三，考虑减免债务委员会的运作以使债务免除具有持续的程序将是有用的。本文的结论是，即使放弃贷款是以可持续方式支持农业收入的不合适策略，对正规银行业的广泛负面影响也可能被夸大了。更加富有成效的方法将集中于是否可以设计贷款豁免，以减少对正规银行系统以及对宏观经济系统可能产生的负面影响。本文确定了三种可能的工具-贷款保险产品，可以帮助银行应对大规模违约的后果。其次，在需要减免债务的情况下，探索建立一个可以减轻国家财政负担的救助基金。第三，考虑债务减免委员会的运作以有一个持续的债务减免程序是有用的。