Volatility is a central theme of the scholarship on party competition. At the extreme, entire systems collapse. Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela each went through a protracted period of change with the crash of old parties and the rise of new ones, including one representing the “new left.” Average electoral volatility grew by more than 50 percent and remained high for a decade or more. Can this churning surface of party death, birth, and change obscure undercurrents of stabilization in individual voting behavior? This project decomposes electoral volatility into two subtypes: system-level volatility—long-term spatial and temporal trends of change in support (e.g., realignment)—and individual volatility—fluid and cycle-specific fluctuations in support (e. g., electoral swing). It shows that the high volatility through the transformation has been at the system level, not the individual level. The cause is the stronger partisan and ethnic bonds mobilized by the new left.

中文翻译：

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浮动选民与新左翼政党的崛起：政党制度转型中的选举波动

波动性是政党竞争奖学金的中心主题。在极端情况下，整个系统崩溃。玻利维亚、厄瓜多尔和委内瑞拉都经历了漫长的变革时期，旧政党的崩溃和新政党的崛起，其中包括一个代表“新左派”的政党。平均选举波动率增加了 50% 以上，并在十年或更长时间内保持高位。政党死亡、出生和变化的这种搅动表面能否掩盖个人投票行为稳定的暗流？该项目将选举波动性分解为两个子类型：系统层面的波动性——支持变化的长期空间和时间趋势（例如，重新调整）——以及个体波动性——支持的流动性和周期特定的波动（例如，选举摇摆）。这表明，转型带来的高波动性发生在系统层面，而不是个体层面。原因是新左派动员起来的更强大的党派和民族纽带。