A failure of credit evaluation results in increasing default risks in the online P2P lending market. Online P2P lending platforms use both forward-looking and backward-looking credit evaluation mechanisms to assess the credit levels of borrowers. The forward-looking credit evaluation mechanism (FCEM) judges credit levels of borrowers with the uploaded information while the backward-looking credit evaluation mechanism (BCEM) uses the historical repayment performance of borrowers on the platform to assess the credit levels of repeated borrowers. Since not all information uploaded by borrowers reflects the credit ability and the trueness level of borrowers, only the hard information that reflects the credit ability can explain the default risk on the platform under the FCEM. The BCEM based on repeated borrowings produces both promise-enhancing and “fishing” incentives and thus does not significantly reduce the default risk, and weakens the effectiveness of forward-looking credit indicators in explaining the default risk because it encourages borrowers to invest in forging forward-looking credit indicators. Additional information such as the interest rate and the repayment period reveal borrower’s credit and thus can also be used as predictors of borrowers’ default risk. Borrowing data from the Renrendai.com are used to test the effectiveness of various credit evaluation mechanisms.

中文翻译：

---

前视与后视

信用评估失败会导致在线P2P借贷市场中的违约风险增加。在线P2P借贷平台使用前瞻性和后瞻性信用评估机制来评估借款人的信用水平。前瞻性信用评估机制（FCEM）使用上载的信息判断借款人的信用水平，而前瞻性信用评估机制（BCEM）使用平台上借款人的历史还款表现来评估重复借款人的信用水平。由于并非借款人上载的所有信息都能反映借款人的信用能力和真实水平，因此只有反映信用能力的硬信息才能解释FCEM下平台上的违约风险。BCEM基于重复借款而产生了承诺增强和“钓鱼”激励，因此并不能显着降低违约风险，并且削弱了前瞻性信贷指标解释违约风险的有效性，因为它鼓励借款人投资于锻造远期信用指标。诸如利率和还款期限之类的其他信息可以揭示借款人的信用，因此也可以用作借款人违约风险的预测指标。来自Renrendai.com的借入数据用于测试各种信用评估机制的有效性。并削弱了前瞻性信用指标在解释违约风险方面的有效性，因为它鼓励借款人投资于伪造前瞻性信用指标。诸如利率和还款期限之类的其他信息可以揭示借款人的信用，因此也可以用作借款人违约风险的预测指标。来自Renrendai.com的借入数据用于测试各种信用评估机制的有效性。并削弱了前瞻性信用指标在解释违约风险方面的有效性，因为它鼓励借款人投资于伪造前瞻性信用指标。诸如利率和还款期限之类的其他信息可以揭示借款人的信用，因此也可以用作借款人违约风险的预测指标。来自Renrendai.com的借入数据用于测试各种信用评估机制的有效性。