Climate change is projected to cause considerable pressure on our environment and communities. In particular, an increase in flooding and extreme erosion events is foreseeable as a result of an anticipated increase in the frequency and severity of storms. In the absence of timely and strategic intervention, climate change is taking us closer to more uncertain (non-linear, stochastic) and potentially more catastrophic climatic impacts. This paper develops a state-of-the-art modelling framework to assess the economic impact of erosion hazards on critical infrastructure and evaluate their vulnerability and resilience to differing storm regimes. This framework is trialled on a UK town (Cockermouth, NW England) that has experienced significant storm-related erosion and flood damage in recent years, highlighting its ability to determine current and future erosion hazard to critical infrastructure. A hydro-sedimentary model is used to simulate fluvial and hillslope sediment erosion and deposition caused by extreme storms within river catchments (sheet, rill, gully and channel bank and bed erosion). The model is applied for current climate conditions and for two future epochs (2021–2040 & 2061–2080) to assess changing erosion hazard to critical infrastructure. Climate conditions for the two epochs are obtained using the UKCP18 high resolution realisation projections under emission scenario RCP8.5. The economic loss caused by these hazards is projected based on new, non-linear depth-cost curves derived from previous assessments. The results show that: 1) due to a warming climate, total rainfall in the Cockermouth area (and likely across the UK) may be higher for all storm durations and annual exceedance probabilities, until epoch 2061–2080 when the rainfall regime may shift towards shorter duration events with higher rainfall and longer duration events with less rainfall; 2) the total area that undergoes flooding, erosion and sediment deposition, and the magnitude of the hazard, may increase as the climate shifts; 3) the economic damage caused by erosion and deposition is positively related to rainfall total, and the highest costs are likely to be associated with damage caused to bridges (£102-130 million), followed by sediment deposition in the urban fabric (£9-82 million), and erosion damage to agricultural land (£16-26 million), buildings (£0.4-18 million) and roads (£0.4-4 million); and 4) the Estimated Annual Damage costs suggest that investment in bridges (£4-6 million) in the Cockermouth area is required now to ensure their resilience to extreme storm events, and interventions are likely to be needed within the next 20 years to prevent high economic costs associated with significant sediment deposition in the urban fabric (£0.3-4 million) and damage to roads (£0.08-0.1 million) and agricultural land (£0.6-2 million). This new framework can help support operational (immediate) and strategic (medium to long term i.e. 10+ years) erosion control decision making through the provision of an assessment of the scale and consequences of erosion.

预计气候变化将对我们的环境和社区造成巨大压力。特别地，由于风暴的频率和严重性的预期增加，可以预见洪水和极端侵蚀事件的增加。在缺乏及时和战略干预的情况下，气候变化使我们更接近不确定性（非线性，随机性）和潜在的灾难性气候影响。本文开发了一个最新的建模框架，以评估侵蚀危害对关键基础设施的经济影响，并评估其对不同风暴形式的脆弱性和适应性。该框架已在最近经历过与暴风雨有关的侵蚀和洪水破坏的英国城镇（科克茅斯，英格兰西北）上试用，强调其确定关键基础设施当前和未来腐蚀危害的能力。一个水沙沉积模型被用来模拟河流和山坡沉积物的侵蚀和河流集水区（表层，小溪，沟壑和河床和河床侵蚀）的极端风暴引起的沉积和沉积。该模型适用于当前的气候条件和未来的两个时期（2021-2040和2061-2080），以评估对关键基础设施的不断变化的侵蚀危害。在排放情景RCP8.5下，使用UKCP18高分辨率实现预测获得了两个时期的气候条件。这些危害造成的经济损失是根据先前评估得出的新的非线性深度成本曲线来预测的。结果表明：1）由于气候变暖，在所有风暴持续时间和年度超标概率下，科克茅斯地区（可能在整个英国）的总降雨量可能会更高，直到2061- 2080年，当时的降雨体制可能会转向降雨较长的较短持续时间事件和降雨较少的较长持续时间事件; 2）随着气候变化，遭受洪水，侵蚀和沉积物沉积的总面积以及危害的程度可能会增加；3）侵蚀和沉积造成的经济损失与降雨总量呈正相关，最高成本很可能与桥梁造成的损失有关（102-1.3亿英镑），其次是城市结构中的沉积物沉积（9英镑） -82百万）和对农业用地（16-26百万英镑），建筑物（0.4-18百万英镑）和道路（0.4-4百万英镑）的侵蚀损害；和4）估算的年度损坏成本表明，现在需要在科克茅斯地区投资桥梁（4-6百万英镑），以确保其抵御极端风暴事件的能力，并且可能需要在未来20年内进行干预，以预防高昂的经济成本，与城市结构中大量沉积物沉积（0.3-4百万英镑）以及道路（0.08-0.1百万英镑）和农业用地（0.6-2百万英镑）的破坏相关。通过提供对侵蚀规模和后果的评估，该新框架可以帮助支持运营（中级）和战略（中长期至长期，即10年以上）的侵蚀控制决策。并可能在未来20年内需要采取干预措施，以防止与城市结构中大量沉积物沉积（0.3-4百万英镑）以及道路（0.08-0.1百万英镑）和农业用地（0.6英镑）相关的高昂经济成本。 -200万）。通过提供对侵蚀规模和后果的评估，该新框架可以帮助支持运营（中级）和战略（中长期至长期，即10年以上）的侵蚀控制决策。并可能在未来20年内需要采取干预措施，以防止与城市结构中大量沉积物沉积（0.3-4百万英镑）以及道路（0.08-0.1百万英镑）和农业用地（0.6英镑）相关的高昂经济成本。 -200万）。通过提供对侵蚀规模和后果的评估，该新框架可以帮助支持运营（中级）和战略（中长期至长期，即10年以上）的侵蚀控制决策。