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Modeling adaptation policies to increase the synergies of the water-climate-agriculture nexus under climate change
Environmental Development ( IF 4.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-19 , DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2021.100612
Parvin Golfam , Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh , Hugo A. Loáiciga

The water-climate-agriculture nexus quantifies synergies, trade-offs, advantages and disadvantages that arise between water management, food production, and climate change consequences taking into account the environmental impacts, economic conditions, and population growth. This work evaluates the water-climate-agriculture nexus in the Gharanghu basin, Iran, seeking to achieve sustainable management of its water system. An optimization model solves for water-release adaptive strategies corresponding to five nexus scenarios to cope with reduced water resources under climate change. The scenarios are as follows (Afshar et al., 2006): change in cropping pattern (Asadieh and Afshar, 2019), reduction of areas under cultivation (Asgari et al., 2015), reuse of agricultural wastewater in irrigated land (Ashofteh et al., 2017), combination of scenarios (Afshar et al., 2006) and (Asgari et al., 2015), namely change in cropping pattern and reuse of agricultural wastewater simultaneously, and (Bates et al., 2008) integration of scenarios (Asadieh and Afshar, 2019) and (Asgari et al., 2015) namely, reduction of areas under cultivation and reuse of agricultural wastewater simultaneously. The nexus scenarios are evaluated with the time reliability index (the ratio of the number of months in which water is supplied to the total months of reservoir operation) based on changes in water supply and agricultural water demand. Results show the time reliability index in the climate change interval (monthly time series for the period 2040–2069) without implementing any nexus scenario equals 28%, and it increases with the implementation of the water-climate-agriculture nexus scenarios. The time reliability of the system equals 85% implementing scenario (Bates et al., 2008) (reducing the area under cultivation and reusing agricultural wastewater in irrigated land). The authors' previous research projects that climate change impacts in the study region would be severe. This paper's findings provide water managers and planners with useful strategies for optimal reservoir operation that rely on decreasing water demand and increasing water supply. The approach introduced and applied in this study, which develops modeling adaptation policies to increase the synergies of the water-climate-agriculture nexus, is applicable to other basins.



中文翻译:

模拟适应政策,以增强气候变化下水-气候-农业关系的协同作用

水-气候-农业之间的联系量化了水管理,粮食生产和气候变化后果之间产生的协同作用,取舍,优缺点,同时考虑了环境影响,经济条件和人口增长。这项工作评估了伊朗Gharanghu盆地的水-气候-农业关系,以期实现对其水系统的可持续管理。一个优化模型解决了与五个联系情景对应的水释放适应策略,以应对气候变化下水资源的减少。情景如下(Afshar等,2006):种植方式的变化(Asadieh和Afshar,2019),耕地减少(Asgari等,2015),灌溉土地上的农业废水回用(Ashofteh等)。等(2017年),(Afshar et al。,2006)和(Asgari et al。,2015)的情景组合,即种植方式的变化和农业废水的再利用,以及(Bates et al。,2008)情景的整合(Asadieh和Afshar, (2019年)和(Asgari等人,2015年),即减少耕种面积并同时重复利用农业废水。基于时间可靠性指数(供水的月数与水库运营的总月数之比),根据供水量和农业需水量的变化,对联系情景进行了评估。结果表明,在未实施任何联系情景的情况下,气候变化间隔中的时间可靠性指数(2040-2069年的每月时间序列)等于28%,并且随着水—气候—农业关系情景的实施而增加。该系统的时间可靠性等于实施方案的85%(Bates等,2008)(减少了耕种面积并重新利用了灌溉土地上的农业废水)。作者以前的研究项目认为,气候变化对研究区域的影响将是严重的。本文的研究结果为水管理者和规划者提供了有用的策略,可以依靠减少需水量和增加供水量来优化水库的运行。在这项研究中引入和应用的方法,它开发了模型适应策略,以增加水-气候-农业关系的协同作用,也适用于其他流域。作者以前的研究项目认为,气候变化对研究区域的影响将是严重的。本文的研究结果为水管理者和计划者提供了有用的策略,以减少水的需求和增加水的供应量来优化水库的运行。在这项研究中引入和应用的方法,它开发了模型适应策略,以增加水-气候-农业关系的协同作用,该方法也适用于其他流域。作者以前的研究项目认为,气候变化对研究区域的影响将是严重的。本文的研究结果为水管理者和计划者提供了有用的策略,以减少水的需求和增加水的供应量来优化水库的运行。在这项研究中引入和应用的方法,它开发了模型适应策略,以增加水-气候-农业关系的协同作用,该方法也适用于其他流域。

更新日期:2021-03-05
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