Research highlights

• Sensitivity of initial and boundary conditions (ICs) are studied for an extra-tropical cyclone (ETC, Gong (2013)) over North Atlantic Ocean using WRF model.

• Movement (track) and synoptic feature of Gong have been evaluated with observations. WRF could simulate the characteristics throughout life cycle of Gong.

• The model attained intense stage was well simulated.

• Cyclogenesis and Q-Vector for Gong are sensitive to the ICs and model could simulate better with 48-h lead time.

Abstract

The role of initial conditions (ICs) in the simulation of severe winter storm ‘Gong’ formed over North Atlantic is studied. The life cycle of Gong started at 1800 UTC of 16–0600 UTC of 22 January, 2013, with CSLP of 972 hPa. The gusty wind (~33 ms⁻¹) and torrential rainfall of ~90 mm d⁻¹ recorded over several major cities of the Iberian peninsula. Five numerical experiments were performed with the WRF model by initializing at 0600 UTC of 16, 1800 UTC of 16, 0600 UTC of 17, 1800 UTC of 17, and 0600 UTC of 18 January, 2013. Our results suggest that significant differences are seen among the experiments, particularly with the ICs of 0600 UTC 17 January, 2013, which represent the quick movement of Gong with a slight underestimation of intensity. The experiment with IC 0600 UTC on 18 January, 2013 produced the best simulation as compared to the observations. The simulated track, intensity, wind flow, and rainfall were well agreeing with the observations. The 12-h average track errors were ranging from 95 to 332 km with 24-, 36-, 48-, 60-, and 72-h lead time. The Q-vectors of Gong with the WRF model with 24-h lead time produced minimum errors.

中文翻译：

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北大西洋上空形成的温带气旋“ Gong”对初始条件的敏感性

研究重点

• 使用WRF模型研究了北大西洋上空的温带气旋（ETC，Gong（2013））的初始条件和边界条件（ICs）的敏感性。

• 龚的运动（轨迹）和天气特征已经通过观察进行了评估。WRF可以模拟龚的整个生命周期的特征。

• 达到高强度阶段的模型得到了很好的模拟。

• Gong的回生和Q-Vector对IC敏感，并且模型可以在48小时的交货时间内更好地模拟。

抽象的

研究了初始条件（IC）在北大西洋上空形成的严重冬季风暴“锣”的模拟中的作用。Gong的生命周期始于2013年1月22日1600 UTC的1800 UTC，CSLP为972 hPa。阵风（〜33 ms ^-1）和倾盆大雨〜90 mm d ^-1记录了伊比利亚半岛的几个主要城市。使用WRF模型通过在2013年1月18日的0600 UTC，16的1800 UTC，17的1800 UTC和17的1800 UTC以及2013年1月18日的0600 UTC进行了初始化，进行了五个数值实验。这些实验，特别是2013年1月17日0600 UTC的IC，代表了锣的快速运动，但强度略有低估。与观察结果相比，2013年1月18日使用IC 0600 UTC进行的实验产生了最佳模拟。模拟的轨道，强度，风流和降雨与观测结果非常吻合。12小时的平均航迹误差范围为95至332 km，提前时间为24、36、48、60和72小时。