Purpose

The purpose of this study is to measure the predictive value of future scenarios prepared using horizon scanning. The future scenarios prepared at the initiative of the Japanese Government have had low predictive value. They have frequently failed to contribute to industrial development and caused social loss. Horizon scanning, which is a key methodology applied in foresight activities, has begun to be used in countries as part of their national innovation systems in lieu of conventional forecasting methods based on the assumption of technological innovation. Research was conducted to actually measure the predictive value of future scenarios prepared using horizon scanning.

Design/methodology/approach

An online survey in Japan was conducted on ordinary people’s attitudes. The questionnaires presented 20 scenarios regarding future society, which were created with the conventional method or horizon scanning method.

Findings

Survey results verified that horizon scanning-based scenarios provided significantly higher predictive value than scenarios prepared using conventional methods.

Practical implications

Implication 1: By eliminating bias in input data and perspectives adopted when considering scenarios, it may be expected that scenarios will be derived that have even higher “predictive value.” Implication 2: By setting the layers of anticipated outputs high and the fields broad, it may be expected that scenarios will be derived that have even greater “change.”

Originality/value

The relatively high rate for the predictive value of the horizon scanning method, more than 40%, validated in this study was significant.

中文翻译：

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地平线扫描对未来方案的预测价值

目的

这项研究的目的是衡量使用水平扫描准备的未来方案的预测价值。在日本政府的倡议下准备的未来设想具有较低的预测价值。他们经常未能为工业发展做出贡献，并造成了社会损失。视距扫描是在预见活动中应用的一种重要方法，已开始在各国用作其国家创新系统的一部分，以取代基于技术创新假设的传统预测方法。进行了研究以实际测量使用水平扫描准备的未来方案的预测价值。

设计/方法/方法

日本进行了一项关于普通民众态度的在线调查。问卷介绍了20种有关未来社会的情景，这些情景是通过常规方法或视域扫描方法创建的。

发现

调查结果证实，基于水平扫描的方案比使用传统方法制备的方案具有更高的预测价值。

实际影响

含义1：通过消除考虑场景时所采用的输入数据和观点的偏见，可以预期将得出具有更高“预测价值”的场景。含义2：通过将预期输出的层次设置得较高并且将领域设置得宽阔，可以预期将得出具有更大“变化”的方案。

创意/价值

在这项研究中验证的水平扫描方法的预测值的相对较高比率（超过40％）具有显着意义。