This study aims to investigate the behavior of sell-side analysts covering firms that are about to experience breaks in strings of consecutive quarterly earnings increases.,The authors estimate the likelihood of analysts predicting a break by using logit regressions for nearly half a million earnings per share forecasts issued by individual analysts from 1992 to 2017.,The authors find that analysts can predict breaks in earnings strings by issuing less favorable earnings estimates ahead of a break announcement. The probability of detecting a break is higher for longer and more severe breaks, for more skillful analysts and for firms with richer information environments. The authors find that analysts’ warnings are heeded by investors and result in less severe reactions to break announcements.,Breaks in strings of earnings increases are situations in which information asymmetry exists and could be mitigated by information intermediaries such as sell-side analysts. Therefore, it is important to examine whether analysts have any informational advantages or disadvantages over insiders and institutional investors in the quarters prior to breaks in strings and whether they communicate such information to the market in a timely and accurate manner, thus reducing information asymmetry by “leveling the field” across the investment community.

中文翻译：

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分析师可以预测盈余字符串的中断吗？

这项研究的目的是调查卖方分析师的行为，这些分析师涵盖了将连续出现一系列连续的季度利润增长中断的公司。作者估计，分析师使用logit回归预测每近百万收入的预测可能会中断作者发现，分析师在1992年至2017年间发布了股票预测。作者发现，分析师可以通过在发布盈余公告之前发布不太理想的盈余预测来预测盈余字符串的断裂。对于更长或更严重的中断，更熟练的分析人员以及信息环境更丰富的公司，检测到中断的可能性更高。作者发现，分析师的警告受到了投资者的关注，导致对发布公告的反应不那么严重。收益增长中断是存在信息不对称的情况，可以通过信息中介机构（如卖方分析师）来缓解。因此，重要的是要检查一下，在断断续续之前，分析师在季度中是否比内部人员和机构投资者具有任何信息优势或劣势，以及他们是否及时，准确地将此类信息传达给市场，从而通过“在整个投资社区中实现这一目标”。