We examine the association between the foreign exchange rate of the US dollar and US presidential cycles. Results show that Republican presidencies tend to start with a strong dollar, which then depreciates over the course of the presidency. In contrast, Democratic presidencies tend to begin with a weak dollar that then appreciates. These patterns result in an apparent presidential effect in US foreign exchange rates, the direction of which depends on whether exchange rates are measured by levels or by returns.

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美国总统周期与外汇市场

我们研究了美元汇率与美国总统周期之间的关联。结果表明，共和党总统任期往往以强势美元开始，然后在总统任期内贬值。相比之下，民主党总统往往以美元疲软开始，然后升值。这些模式导致美国外汇汇率出现明显的总统效应，其方向取决于汇率是按水平还是按回报衡量。