Purpose - The impact of financial reforms and financial development on an economy has received considerable attention over the recent past. This paper aims to investigate whether financial liberalisation and financial development increase the likelihood financial crises in Southern African development community (SADC) countries. Design/methodology/approach - Due to the binary nature of the dependent variable, the logit model is used for the analysis using data for the period 1990 to 2015. Findings - The results showed that financial liberalisation captured by real interest rates reduces the likelihood of financial crises. Furthermore, regulatory quality strengthens this reductive effect of financial liberalisation on the probability of financial crises. On the other hand, financial development represented by bank credit increases the incidence of financial crises. The results also suggest that financial liberalisation may increase the likelihood of financial crises indirectly through financial development. Research limitations/implications - The study recommends that a sound regulatory and supervisory framework be established as well as institutional quality raised to curb the effect of financial development on the incidence of financial crises. Originality/value - There is scant evidence on the role that financial liberalisation and financial development play in the incidence of financial crises in the SADC. This study incorporates the effect of institutional quality in the analysis which has been neglected by most studies on financial reforms in SADC countries. A number of recent studies in SADC countries conclude that financial development resulting from financial reforms, may hinder economic growth. Therefore, this study sheds light on this negative relationship.

中文翻译：

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南部非洲发展共同体国家的金融自由化，金融发展和金融危机

目的-金融改革和金融发展对经济的影响在最近的过去受到了相当多的关注。本文旨在调查金融自由化和金融发展是否会增加南部非洲发展共同体（SADC）国家发生金融危机的可能性。设计/方法/方法-由于因变量的二元性质，将logit模型用于使用1990年至2015年期间的数据进行分析。结果-结果表明，实际利率所捕获的金融自由化降低了发生利率变动的可能性。金融危机。此外，监管质量加强了金融自由化对金融危机发生概率的减少作用。另一方面，以银行信贷为代表的金融发展增加了金融危机的发生率。研究结果还表明，金融自由化可能通过金融发展间接增加发生金融危机的可能性。研究的局限性/意义-研究建议建立合理的监管和监督框架，并提高机构质量，以抑制金融发展对金融危机发生率的影响。原创性/价值-很少有证据表明金融自由化和金融发展在南部非洲发展共同体发生金融危机中所起的作用。这项研究将制度质量的影响纳入了分析，而该分析被南共体国家中大多数金融改革研究所忽视。在南部非洲发展共同体国家中的许多最新研究得出的结论是，金融改革导致的金融发展可能会阻碍经济增长。因此，本研究揭示了这种负相关关系。