This study estimates the intertemporal model for the relationship between exports and imports and examines the sustainability of current account deficits (CADs) and the validity of intertemporal budget constraint for 24 Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS)‐based two‐step Engle and Granger test, the cointegration regression Durbin–Watson (CRDW) test, and the Stock–Watson test performed on the one‐regime model with time‐invariant parameters and no structural break provide mixed support for the presence of cointegration between exports and imports. The recursive least squares‐based cumulative sum of recursive residuals (CUSUM) and the cumulative sum of squares of recursive residuals (CUSUMSQ) tests and the OLS‐based Andrews‐Quandt (AQ) and Andrews – Ploberger (AP) tests suggest the presence of structural breaks in the long‐run relationship between exports and imports for a number of countries. The end‐of‐sample new cointegration breakdown tests performed on the OLS, fully modified OLS, and full‐information maximum‐likelihood estimates of the model suggest the presence of cointegration between exports and imports for most countries. The dominant support for cointegration between trade flows points toward the sustainability of CADs and the validity of intertemporal budget constraint. The macroeconomic stabilization policies seem to have been effective in correcting the market failures and maintaining the steady‐state equilibrium relationship between trade flows in the sample countries. The findings of this study have important implications for empirical research. The structural breaks in the cointegrating vector could occur even over the short time periods and at any point in time. It is essentially important to assess the sustainability of the external position in the presence of long‐period as well as short‐period breaks in the cointegrating vector.

中文翻译：

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经常账户失衡的跨期可持续性：经合组织国家的新证据

这项研究估计了进出口之间的跨期模型，并检验了经常账户赤字（CAD）的可持续性以及跨期预算约束对于24个经济合作与发展组织国家的有效性。基于标准的普通最小二乘（OLS）的两步Engle和Granger检验，协整回归Durbin-Watson（CRDW）检验和St​​ock-Watson检验在具有时不变参数且没有结构的单区域模型上执行中断为进出口之间存在协整关系提供了混合支持。基于递归最小二乘的递归残差的累积总和（CUSUM）和递归残差的平方和的累积总和（CUSUMSQ）检验以及基于OLS的Andrews-Quandt（AQ）和Andrews-Ploberger（AP）检验表明许多国家的进出口之间的长期关系出现结构性断裂。对OLS，完全修改的OLS和模型的完整信息最大似然估计执行的样本新协整分解测试表明，大多数国家的进出口之间存在协整关系。对贸易流之间的协整的主要支持指向CAD的可持续性和跨期预算约束的有效性。宏观经济稳定政策似乎在纠正市场失灵和保持样本国家贸易流量之间的稳态平衡关系方面是有效的。这项研究的发现对实证研究具有重要意义。甚至在很短的时间段内和任何时间点，协整向量中的结构性断裂都可能发生。评估协整向量中存在长周期和短周期中断时，外部位置的可持续性至关重要。甚至在很短的时间段内和任何时间点，协整向量中的结构性断裂都可能发生。评估协整向量中存在长周期和短周期中断时，外部位置的可持续性至关重要。甚至在很短的时间段内和任何时间点，协整向量中的结构性断裂都可能发生。评估协整向量中存在长周期和短周期中断时，外部位置的可持续性至关重要。