Can a temporary economic shock to an important local industry influence long-run city population? To answer this question I study the large temporary shock to British cities caused by the U.S. CivilWar (1861–1865), which reduced cotton supplies to Britain’s important cotton textile industry. I show that this event temporarily reduced the growth rate of cities specializing in cotton textile production, relative to other English cities, and led to a persistent change in the level of city population.

中文翻译：

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城市经济的短暂冲击和持续影响：美国内战后英国城市的证据

对当地重要产业的暂时性经济冲击会影响长期城市人口吗？为了回答这个问题，我研究了美国民用战争（1861-1865年）对英国城市造成的巨大暂时冲击，这种冲击减少了英国重要的棉纺织业的棉花供应。我表明，与英国其他城市相比，这一事件暂时降低了专门从事棉纺织品生产的城市的增长率，并导致了城市人口水平的持续变化。