Unrecognized states are characterized by stagnant or crumbling economies and political instability, often serve as havens for illicit trade, and challenge the territorial sovereignty of recognized states. Their persistence is both intellectually puzzling and normatively problematic, but unrecognized statehood can be a remarkably stable outcome, persisting for decades. Our dynamic four-player model reveals that unrecognized statehood emerges as an equilibrium outcome when a patron state is willing and able to persistently invest resources to sustain it. We assess options available to actors in the international community who seek to impose their preferred outcomes in these disputes and find that, although sanctions are the most frequently employed, they can often lead to renewed conflict instead of the intended resolution.

中文翻译：

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无法识别的国家：一种自决和外国影响的理论

未经承认的国家的特点是经济停滞或崩溃，政治不稳定，通常充当非法贸易的避风港，并挑战公认国家的领土主权。他们的坚持既在智力上令人困惑，又在规范上存在问题，但未被承认的国家地位可能会是非常稳定的结果，持续数十年。我们的动态四人模型显示，当赞助国愿意并能够持续投资以维持这种状态时，无法识别的国家地位就会作为平衡结果出现。我们评估了寻求在这些争端中施加自己偏爱的结果的国际社会行为者可利用的选择，并发现，尽管制裁是最常采用的制裁，但它们往往会导致新的冲突，而不是预期的解决方案。