Abstract:Recent evidence confirms that the postponement transition has begun in some Latin American countries. As the mean age at first birth increases, dispersion around the mean value might also increase, reflecting a growing heterogeneity in the timing of transition to motherhood. In fact, in countries from the Southern Cone, recently available data suggest the emergence of a specific pattern that not only reflects heterogeneity, but also a polarization around two "crests;" the first one at the end of adolescence and the second one toward the end of the twenties. Using census data, vital statistics and household surveys from three countries, we study the extent to which this process consolidates a recognizable pattern in the timing of first birth in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay, visible through age-specific conditional rates of first births.

中文翻译：

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南锥体国家首次出生年龄的双峰模式？

摘要：最近的证据证实，一些拉美国家已经开始推迟转型。随着第一次生育的平均年龄增加，围绕平均值的离散度也可能增加，这反映了向母亲过渡的时间的异质性越来越大。事实上，在南锥体国家，最近获得的数据表明出现了一种特定模式，它不仅反映了异质性，而且还反映了围绕两个“波峰”的两极分化；第一个在青春期结束时，第二个在二十年代末。使用来自三个国家的人口普查数据、人口动态统计数据和住户调查，我们研究了这个过程在多大程度上巩固了阿根廷、智利和乌拉圭第一次出生时间的可识别模式，