Abstract:Following distinctive trends toward urbanization and suburbanization, spatially heterogeneous demographic dynamics are increasingly reflective of different development trajectories at both urban and metropolitan scales. A comprehensive investigation of population trends along homogeneous cycles of urban expansion–with identification of the most relevant factors of growth and change–is still lacking for several European cities. On this point, the present study investigates spatio-temporal patterns of urban expansion in 174 metropolitan regions of Europe, comparing population trends in inner cities and suburbs during a relatively long-time interval (1950-2000). A mixed (parametric/ non-parametric) statistical approach was developed with the aim to profile the specific socioeconomic context underlying population growth (or decline). A comparative analysis of population trends in inner cities and suburbs allows identification of similarities and differences in urbanization patterns and processes across Europe and contributes to define metropolitan clusters associated with a specific background context. The empirical results of this analysis give a more complete representation of contextual factors of population growth and decline in European cities, outlining the increased demographic polarization in inner cores and suburbs during the earlier phases of urbanization. Evidence for higher heterogeneity and fragmentation of long-term population trends during the late phases of urbanization brings further insights in the debate over the future development of contemporary cities.

中文翻译：

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重新审视（大都会）城市：欧洲的长期人口趋势和城市化模式，1950-2000

摘要：随着城市化和郊区化的独特趋势，空间异质的人口动态越来越反映城市和大都市规模的不同发展轨迹。一些欧洲城市仍然缺乏对城市扩张同质循环中人口趋势的全面调查——并确定最相关的增长和变化因素。在这一点上，本研究调查了欧洲 174 个大都市地区城市扩张的时空模式，比较了相对较长时间间隔（1950-2000 年）内城和郊区的人口趋势。开发了一种混合（参数/非参数）统计方法，旨在描绘人口增长（或下降）背后的特定社会经济背景。对内城和郊区人口趋势的比较分析可以识别整个欧洲城市化模式和过程的异同，并有助于定义与特定背景环境相关的大都市群。该分析的实证结果更完整地代表了欧洲城市人口增长和下降的背景因素，概述了城市化早期阶段内核心和郊区人口两极分化加剧的情况。城市化后期长期人口趋势的更高异质性和碎片化的证据为关于当代城市未来发展的辩论提供了进一步的见解。