Abstract:Urban growth at different spatial scales is analysed using the assumptions that large cities have experienced sequential cycles of urbanization, suburbanization and re-urbanization that reflect complex demographic dynamics. Original approaches, quantitative methodologies and indicators are employed to support analysis of urban growth at different spatial scales. Residential mobility is considered as a proxy measure for spatial dynamics, intensity of urban expansion and socioeconomic development at local and regional scales in Mediterranean Europe. By computing the percent share of the population living in the same municipality five years before the census date in the total resident population at the census date, a spatial analysis of residential mobility and related background context allowed for the identification of specific urban cycles, outlining heterogeneous patterns of growth in the metropolitan region of Athens, Greece, over the last three decades (1981–2011). Results indicate that changes in spatial patterns of residential mobility are associated with multiple factors (directly or indirectly), dependent on demographic dynamics and economic cycles exposing (apparent or latent) variability in the socio-spatial urban structure and functional re-organization processes across larger metropolitan areas. Multiple socioeconomic transitions are identified in the study area, with short-range population movements diverging with urbanization, suburbanization and re-urbanization. Under both economic expansion and recession, spatial patterns of residential mobility reflect differential population dynamics, whose knowledge provides innovative visions for future urban cycles in Europe.

中文翻译：

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住宅流动性能否预测城市增长？欧洲大都市区当地社会经济背景的重要性

摘要：假设大城市经历了反映复杂人口动态的城市化、郊区化和再城市化的连续循环，分析了不同空间尺度的城市增长。采用原始方法、定量方法和指标来支持不同空间尺度的城市增长分析。住宅流动性被认为是地中海欧洲地方和区域尺度的空间动态、城市扩张强度和社会经济发展的替代指标。通过计算普查日期前五年居住在同一直辖市的人口占普查日期总常住人口的百分比，对住宅流动性和相关背景环境的空间分析允许识别特定的城市周期，概述过去三十年（1981-2011 年）希腊雅典大都市区的异质增长模式。结果表明，住宅流动性空间格局的变化与多种因素（直接或间接）相关，取决于人口动态和经济周期，这些因素暴露了更大范围内社会空间城市结构和功能重组过程的（表观或潜在）变异性。大都市区。研究区确定了多个社会经济转型，短期人口流动与城市化、郊区化和再城市化不同。在经济扩张和衰退的同时，