Abstract:This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The model accounts for cross-correlation and autocorrelation among the ASFR time series. The effects of certain measures are quantified through the introduction of policy variables. Our approach is applicable to probabilistic sensitivity analyses investigating the potential outcome of political intervention. A slight increase in the TFR is probable until 2040. In the median scenario, the TFR will increase from 1.6 in 2016 to 1.63 in 2040 and will be between 1.34 and 1.93 with a probability of 75% under the most realistic policy scenario. Based on this result, it is unlikely that the fertility level will fall back to its extremely low levels of the mid-1990s. Four simple alternate scenarios are used to illustrate the estimated ceteris paribus effect of changes in our policy variables on the TFR as well as the results of simple extrapolations.

中文翻译：

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特定年龄生育率的主成分模拟——德国家庭和社会政策对生殖行为的影响

摘要：本文提出了一种模拟方法，通过对 ASFR 主成分的时间序列建模来间接估计德国的特定年龄生育率 (ASFR) 和总生育率 (TFR)。该模型考虑了 ASFR 时间序列之间的互相关和自相关。通过引入政策变量来量化某些措施的效果。我们的方法适用于调查政治干预潜在结果的概率敏感性分析。到 2040 年，TFR 可能会略有增加。在中值情景中，TFR 将从 2016 年的 1.6 增加到 2040 年的 1.63，在最现实的政策情景下，TFR 将在 1.34 至 1.93 之间，概率为 75%。基于这个结果，生育率不太可能回落到 1990 年代中期的极低水平。四个简单的替代方案用于说明我们的政策变量变化对 TFR 的估计其他条件不变的影响以及简单外推的结果。