AbstractThe strong, persistent linear trend of the highest period life expectancy of females at birth, namely best-performance life expectancy, is an interesting global phenomenon which has already lasted for about 150 years. In this article, we study both the highest and lowest period life expectancies of a group of more developed countries and areas, and exploit their recent trends to construct approximate upper and lower bounds as a supplementary tool for future projections. We also seek two modifications of this proposed approach. First, despite that it has remained largely an empirical observation, we intend to examine the use of extreme value theory to provide a more theoretical framework for both the highest and lowest life expectancies. Second, we construct two hypothetical populations with each age experiencing the lowest or highest mortality rate amongst all the populations considered, and extrapolate their life expectancy trends into the future. The resulting life expectancy bounds perform reasonably well in our backtesting exercise and can potentially complement the usual application of a stochastic mortality model to the data of a single country.

中文翻译：

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超越最高预期寿命：构建代理平均预期寿命上下限

摘要女性出生时的最高预期寿命的强而持久的线性趋势，即最佳表现预期寿命，是一个有趣的全球现象，已经持续了约150年。在本文中，我们研究了一组较发达国家和地区的最高和最低预期寿命，并利用它们的最新趋势来构建近似的上下限，作为对未来预测的补充工具。我们还寻求对这种提议方法的两种修改。首先，尽管它在很大程度上仍是一项经验观察，但我们打算研究极值理论的使用，以便为最高和最低预期寿命提供更多的理论框架。第二，我们构建了两个假设的人口，每个年龄在所有考虑的人口中死亡率最低或最高，并将其预期寿命趋势推算到未来。由此产生的预期寿命界限在我们的回测工作中表现相当不错，并且可能会补充随机死亡率模型对单个国家/地区数据的通常应用。