The Hamilton–Perry method, which uses cohort change ratios (CCR) and child-woman ratios (CWR), has gained acceptance as research has demonstrated its practical value and accuracy in forecasting population composition. Assessments of this method have been based on the usual assumption that CCRs and CWRs developed over the base period are held constant over the forecast horizon. We propose several approaches for modifying CCRs and CWRs over the forecast horizon. These alternatives are averaging and trending these ratios and a synthetic method that bases local CCRs and CWRs changes on state-level changes in CCRs and CWRs. We evaluate the errors for these alternatives against the errors holding the CCRs and CWRs constant for counties in Washington State and for census tracts in New Mexico. The evaluation suggests that averaging or trending CCRs and CWRs are not worthwhile strategies, but the synthetic method reduces errors compared to holding the ratios constant over the horizon.

中文翻译：

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在汉密尔顿-佩里预测方法中使用修正的同类群组变化和妇女与女性比率

汉密尔顿-佩里方法采用了队列变化率（CCR）和妇女与女性的比率（CWR），由于研究证明了其在预测人口构成方面的实用价值和准确性，因此获得了认可。对这种方法的评估是基于通常的假设，即在基准期间内开发的CCR和CWR在预测范围内保持恒定。我们提供了几种在预测范围内修改CCR和CWR的方法。这些替代方案是对这些比率进行平均和趋势化，以及一种基于本地CCR和CWR更改基于CCR和CWR的状态级别更改的综合方法。我们根据使华盛顿州各县和新墨西哥州的普查区的CCR和CWR保持不变的错误来评估这些替代方案的错误。