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Decomposition: population ageing at a sub-national level using Tasmania, Australia as a case study
Journal of Population Research ( IF 1.6 ) Pub Date : 2018-03-28 , DOI: 10.1007/s12546-018-9201-3
Lisa Denny

While population ageing is considered a ‘major concern’ by over half the governments worldwide according to the UN and ‘the most important population issue for the ensuing two decades’ by a 2012 survey of leading demographers, research into population ageing and its causes at a sub-national level has only emerged more recently. This paper introduces a model for identifying the factors influencing the change in the mean age of a population. Through decomposition the model identifies how, and to what extent, each component of demographic change (fertility, mortality, overseas migration and interstate migration) contributes to the overall change in the mean age of the population over a given period. The paper uses the State of Tasmania, Australia to quantify, for the first time, the difference between national and sub-national population ageing. It finds that from 2005 to 2015, Tasmania’s predicted mean age increased by an average of 0.222 years per annum compared with 0.108 years per annum for Australia. This differential of 0.114 years is largely explained by the ageing effect of interstate migration, averaging 0.073 years per annum, which is not relevant at a national level. The paper confirms that as regional differences between fertility and mortality levels within a nation are usually small, it is migration which is predominantly responsible for different changes in the mean age of the population between national and sub-national levels.

中文翻译:

分解:以澳大利亚塔斯马尼亚为案例研究的次国家级人口老龄化

虽然联合国认为人口老龄化是全球半数以上政府的“主要关切”,但根据2012年对主要人口统计学家的调查,人口老龄化及其原因的研究却是“随后二十年最重要的人口问题”。地方政府级别只是最近才出现。本文介绍了一种模型,用于识别影响人口平均年龄变化的因素。通过分解,模型确定了人口变化的每个组成部分(生育力,死亡率,海外移民和州际移民)如何以及在何种程度上对给定时期内人口平均年龄的总体变化做出了贡献。本文首次使用澳大利亚塔斯马尼亚州来量化国家和次国家人口老龄化之间的差异。调查发现,从2005年到2015年,塔斯马尼亚州的预计平均年龄平均每年增加0.222岁,而澳大利亚的平均年龄为每年0.108岁。0.114年的差异主要是由州际迁移的老龄化影响解释的,每年平均为0.073年,这在国家一级并不重要。该文件证实,由于一个国家的生育率和死亡率水平之间的区域差异通常很小,因此移民是造成国家和国家以下各级人口平均年龄不同变化的主要原因。114年的主要原因是州际迁移的老龄化影响,每年平均为0.073年,这在国家一级并不重要。该文件证实,由于一个国家的生育率和死亡率水平之间的区域差异通常很小,因此移民是造成国家和国家以下各级人口平均年龄不同变化的主要原因。114年的主要原因是州际迁移的老龄化影响,每年平均为0.073年,这在国家一级并不重要。该文件证实,由于一个国家的生育率和死亡率水平之间的区域差异通常很小,因此移民是造成国家和国家以下各级人口平均年龄不同变化的主要原因。
更新日期:2018-03-28
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