In light of classical political economists’ ideas (especially Smith and Malthus) and more recent theory of demographic transition, Foley (Econ Lett 68:309–317, 2000) constructed a simple integrated population model, which is then used as an alternative tool to project the stabilising level of world population and income level associated with it. This paper is an update of this line of research using more recent empirical evidence. We find the world still exhibits a strong pattern of Smithian increasing returns to scale and most countries’ populations have been stabilising along a convex income–fertility schedule. Our projections suggest that the world population will stabilise at 11.4 billion with per capita income around $12,595 in constant 2005 USD. Unfortunately, the process of world population stabilisation tends to be accompanied with growing global income equality.

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通过史密斯主义者增加劳动报酬来稳定世界人口：最新情况

根据古典政治经济学家的思想（特别是史密斯和马尔萨斯）以及最近的人口转变理论，弗利（Econ Lett 68：309-317，2000）构建了一个简单的综合人口模型，然后将该模型用作替代人口模型。预测世界人口的稳定水平以及与此相关的收入水平。本文使用最新的经验证据对这一研究领域进行了更新。我们发现，世界仍然表现出史密斯式的规模收益递增的强大模式，并且大多数国家的人口一直在凸显的收入-生育率计划下保持稳定。我们的预测表明，以2005年不变美元价格计算，世界人口将稳定在114亿美元，人均收入约为12,595美元。很遗憾，