Following a number of difficulties measuring net overseas migration (NOM), since 2006 the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has defined a usual resident of Australia as a person who spends at least 12 months of any given 16-month period in Australia. This is ascertained through matching of individual records for persons moving across Australia’s borders, including their Arrival and Departure Cards, their passport movements and their visa grants. The total number of persons counted into the population through arrival in a given quarter is termed NOM Arrivals. The total number of persons counted out of the population through departure in a given quarter is termed NOM Departures. The net of the two numbers is NOM or Net Overseas Migration for the quarter. In the late 2000s the data capturing NOM movements was held by the ABS and the data collected on visa grants was administered by the then Department of Immigration and Citizenship. In this paper, we examine the utility of these now linked administrative data sets in improving our knowledge about the timing and level of NOM propensities, or probabilities of ‘NOM tagging’ in the Australian migration system. Specifically, we present findings on the estimated event history of ‘NOMing in’ and ‘NOMing out’ of Australia using 22 aggregate visa types. These aggregate visa types are defined broadly containing categories such as business skills, employer sponsored, general skilled migration, working holiday makers, students and special humanitarian programme types. Implications of our findings with respect to improving Australian migration forecasting and further data linkages are discussed.

中文翻译：

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按签证类别划分的澳大利亚移民倾向：对相关行政数据的分析

在衡量海外净移民（NOM）时遇到了许多困难之后，自2006年以来，澳大利亚统计局（ABS）将澳大利亚的普通居民定义为在给定的16个月内至少消费12个月的人。这可以通过匹配跨澳大利亚边境人员的个人记录来确定，包括他们的到达和离境卡，他们的护照移动和他们的签证补助。在给定的季度内到达目的地的总人数称为NOM到达人数。在给定的季度中，因出发而从人口中计算在内的总人数称为NOM出发人数。这两个数字的净值是该季度的NOM或净海外迁移量。在2000年代后期，获取和惠益分享信息的数据由ABS持有，而签证补助金的收集数据则由当时的移民和公民事务部管理。在本文中，我们研究了这些现在链接的行政数据集在提高我们对NOM倾向的时间和水平或澳大利亚移民系统中“ NOM标签”的可能性的认识方面的效用。具体而言，我们使用22种签证类型，介绍了澳大利亚“不准入境”和“不准入境”事件的估计历史记录。这些总的签证类型被广泛定义，包括商务技能，雇主资助，一般技术移民，工作假期度假者，学生和特殊人道主义计划类型。