The European Monetary Union (EMU) crisis holds special lessons for existing monetary unions. We assess the behaviour of real effective exchange rates (REERs) of members of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community zone with respect to their long-term equilibrium paths. A reduced form of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate model is estimated for associated misalignments. Our findings suggest that for majority of countries, macroeconomic fundamentals have the expected associations with the exchange rate fluctuations. The analysis also reveals that only the REER adjustments of Cameroon and Gabon are significant in restoring the long-term equilibrium in the event of a shock. The Cameroonian economic fundamentals of terms of trade, government expenditure and openness have different long-term relations with the REER in comparison to those of other member states. There is no need for an adjustment in the level of the peg based on the present quantitative analysis of REER paths. JEL: F31, F33, F42, F61, O55

中文翻译：

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REER 失衡和宏观经济调整：来自 CEMAC 区域的证据

欧洲货币联盟 (EMU) 危机为现有货币联盟提供了特殊的教训。我们评估了中非经济和货币共同体区成员的实际有效汇率 (REER) 在长期均衡路径方面的行为。对相关偏差的基本均衡汇率模型的简化形式进行估计。我们的研究结果表明，对于大多数国家而言，宏观经济基本面与汇率波动具有预期的关联。分析还表明，只有喀麦隆和加蓬的 REER 调整对于在发生冲击时恢复长期平衡具有重要意义。喀麦隆贸易条件的经济基本面，与其他成员国相比，政府支出和开放度与 REER 的长期关系不同。根据目前对 REER 路径的定量分析，无需调整挂钩水平。JEL：F31、F33、F42、F61、O55