Since the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in March 2011, the USA, European Union, Arab League and several other regulatory entities imposed negative economic sanctions on Syria—some of the most comprehensive ever implemented. This article first provides an assessment of Syrian foreign trade sector during the reform period of the 2000s and its impact on economic growth. Second, it estimates the impact of sanctions and conflict on the trade sector of the Syrian economy. The analysis is conducted using a panel-gravity model between Syria and 78 trading partners (1987–2017). Multilateral sanctions and conflict-related disruptions demonstrate a large significant negative impact on Syria-bilateral trade flow by 65 per cent. We attempt to find out whether the Syrian economy was able to divert trade away from Europe and/or conduct de-Europeanisation. Findings confirm that the Syrian economy was unable to divert trade flow to Asian and other countries due to the conflict-related congestion and distance factor. JEL: C33, F10

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对外部门：在拥堵和制裁之间——“叙利亚经济案例，1987-2018”

自 2011 年 3 月叙利亚危机爆发以来，美国、欧盟、阿拉伯联盟和其他几个监管实体对叙利亚实施了负面经济制裁——这是有史以来实施的最全面的制裁之一。本文首先评估了 2000 年代改革时期叙利亚外贸部门及其对经济增长的影响。其次，它估计了制裁和冲突对叙利亚经济贸易部门的影响。该分析是使用叙利亚与 78 个贸易伙伴（1987-2017 年）之间的面板重力模型进行的。多边制裁和与冲突有关的破坏表明，对叙利亚双边贸易流的巨大负面影响高达 65%。我们试图找出叙利亚经济是否能够将贸易从欧洲转移出去和/或进行去欧洲化。调查结果证实，由于与冲突有关的拥堵和距离因素，叙利亚经济无法将贸易流量转移到亚洲和其他国家。JEL：C33、F10