The decarbonization of the energy system requires the adoption of a mix of zero or low carbon intensive technological options, which depends on their cost-effectiveness, their potential to reduce emissions and on social acceptance issues. Transport electrification combined with renewable energy sources (RES) deployment in power generation is a key decarbonization option assessed in many recent studies that focus on national or international climate policies. The penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) together with a gradual retirement of conventional oil-fuelled vehicles implies that a new ‘trade ecosystem’ will be created characterized by different features (move from OPEX to CAPEX) and supply chains. A key component of the EVs are the Lithium-Ion batteries, the manufacturing of which is employment intensive and constitutes an essential element of the EVs that can act as a driver for establishing comparative advantages and increasing EV market shares. Our study focuses on the size of the EV market that can be established within ambitious global and EU decarbonization scenarios and investigates the economic, trade and employment implications considering the production chain of EVs (i.e., the regional production of batteries and vehicles). We use the large-scale global GEM-E3-FIT model to capture the trade dynamics of decarbonization scenarios. We find that under ambitious climate policies, the global size of the clean energy technologies will be US$44 trillion cumulatively over the 2020–2050 period. 44per cent of the market relates to EVs, which will mostly be produced outside EU. For the EU to capture a significant segment of the EV value chain, it needs to increase clean energy R&D and associated supportive policies so as to boost the domestic capacity to produce competitively batteries. JEL: F11, F13, F16, F18, F62, F68

中文翻译：

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欧盟电动汽车部署和政策对经济、贸易和就业的影响，以支持国内电池制造

能源系统的脱碳需要采用零碳或低碳密集型技术选项的组合，这取决于它们的成本效益、减少排放的潜力和社会接受问题。交通电气化与发电中的可再生能源 (RES) 部署相结合，是最近许多关注国家或国际气候政策的研究评估的关键脱碳选项。电动汽车 (EV) 的普及以及传统燃油汽车的逐渐淘汰意味着将创建一个具有不同特征（从 OPEX 到 CAPEX）和供应链的新“贸易生态系统”。电动汽车的一个关键部件是锂离子电池，其制造是就业密集型的，是电动汽车的重要组成部分，可以作为建立比较优势和增加电动汽车市场份额的驱动力。我们的研究侧重于可在雄心勃勃的全球和欧盟脱碳情景中建立的电动汽车市场规模，并调查考​​虑到电动汽车生产链（即电池和车辆的区域生产）的经济、贸易和就业影响。我们使用大规模全球 GEM-E3-FIT 模型来捕捉脱碳情景的贸易动态。我们发现，在雄心勃勃的气候政策下，2020-2050 年期间清洁能源技术的全球规模将累计达到 44 万亿美元。44% 的市场与电动汽车相关，电动汽车主要在欧盟以外生产。欧盟要占领电动汽车价值链的重要部分，就需要增加清洁能源的研发和相关的支持政策，以提高国内生产具有竞争力的电池的能力。JEL：F11、F13、F16、F18、F62、F68