The problem of ‘naked statistical evidence’ is one of the most debated issues in evidence theory. Most evidence scholars agree that it is deeply problematic to base a verdict on naked statistical evidence, but they disagree on why it is problematic, and point to different characteristics of naked statistical evidence as the root of the problem. In this article, the author discusses the merits of different solutions to the problem of naked statistical evidence, and argues for the incentive-solution: verdicts based on naked statistical evidence are unacceptable as they do not contribute in a positive way to the incentive structure for lawful behaviour.

中文翻译：

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赤裸裸的统计证据和对合法行为的激励

“裸统计证据”问题是证据理论中争论最多的问题之一。大多数证据学者都认为，以裸统计证据为基础进行定论是有很大问题的，但他们不同意为什么会有问题，并指出裸统计证据的不同特征是问题的根源。在这篇文章中，作者讨论了对裸统计证据问题的不同解决方案的优点，并提出了激励解决方案：基于裸统计证据的判决是不可接受的，因为它们对激励结构没有积极的贡献。合法行为。