ABSTRACT

The Afghan Taliban appear to be on the verge of reconstituting the so-called Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan proto-state that was toppled in late 2001 by U.S., coalition and indigenous forces. A series of factors indicate that the Afghan government could implode from within or be swiftly overthrown by the Afghan Taliban unless the United States continuously reinforces Kabul with ample political-military aid. In addition, any future U.S.-led military reengagement would likely amount to a replay of the events of late 2001 or worse, thereby prolonging the war. Lastly, there is little reason to expect that the Afghan Taliban leadership will temper its ideological aspirations, sever ties with designated terrorist groups, or moderate its governing style in return for international recognition or under threat of punitive repercussions. As such, how the United States manages its anticipated withdrawal in the coming months will have major ramifications, and America should prepare for the possibility of an historical recurrence of the collapse of the Afghan government reminiscent of the downfall of the Soviet-sponsored Communist regime in 1992.

摘要

阿富汗塔利班似乎即将重建所谓的阿富汗伊斯兰酋长国原型国家，该国家于 2001 年底被美国、联军和土著部队推翻。一系列因素表明，除非美国不断向喀布尔提供充足的政治军事援助，否则阿富汗政府可能会从内部内爆或被阿富汗塔利班迅速推翻。此外，未来以美国为首的任何军事重新接触都可能等于重演 2001 年末或更糟的事件，从而延长战争。最后，没有理由期望阿富汗塔利班领导人会缓和其意识形态抱负，切断与指定恐怖组织的联系，或缓和其执政风格，以换取国际承认或受到惩罚性后果的威胁。因此，