ABSTRACT

Almost a decade after events in Tunisia and Egypt led to the fall of long-time dictators, the Sudan eventually had its ‘Arab Spring’. In 2019, after six months of determined mass actions, the people of Sudan finally overthrew Omar al-Bashir. Since the fall of the dictator, representatives of the people have jostled with the military for power. This struggle has developed as the people, represented by the Freedom and Change (FFC) movement, have forced themselves into a transitional government with the military. This transitional government is reflective of the struggle of previous regimes’ efforts to hold on to power and popular forces’ efforts to dismantle the autocratic system that has dictated the fortunes of Sudan for decades. This struggle is as old as the Sudan and repeats prior transitions from dictatorship to democracy in 1964 and 1985. This time people are demanding more from their leaders in the hope of ending decades of fragmentation, uneven development and corruption responsible for civil wars and mass impoverishment. Whether they succeed or not will also depend on the role played by international actors. This brief commentary presents some of the complexities faced, evidence of the gains made, and some insight into the challenges that lie ahead.

摘要

在突尼斯和埃及发生的事件导致长期独裁者垮台近十年之后，苏丹终于有了“阿拉伯之春”。经过六个月的坚定果断行动，2019年，苏丹人民终于推翻了奥马尔·巴希尔（Omar al-Bashir）。自独裁政权倒台以来，人民代表就与军队争夺权力。随着以自由与变革（FFC）运动为代表的人民迫使自己成为军队的过渡政府，这种斗争得以发展。这个过渡政府反映了前政权为坚持权力而进行的斗争以及人民力量为拆除决定了苏丹数十年命运的专制制度所做的努力。这场斗争与苏丹一样古老，并在1964年和1985年重复了从独裁政权到民主政权的过渡。这次，人们对领导人提出了更高的要求，希望结束数十年的分裂，内乱发展和腐败，造成内战和大规模贫困。它们是否成功，也将取决于国际行为者所扮演的角色。这篇简短的评论介绍了所面临的一些复杂性，取得的成就的证据以及对未来挑战的一些见解。