Although the decline in the level of internal migration has been the focus of growing scholarly attention, little attention has been paid to countries with increasing or stable intensities. As a result, it is not clear why internal migration is declining in some countries but not in others. This paper seeks to address this gap by establishing variations in internal migration trends in 18 OECD countries and determining the economic, demographic and social factors underpinning them. We assemble a time series of annual interregional migration intensities from 1996 to 2018. We find that all non-European countries report a downward trend, whereas in Europe, eight countries exhibit an upward trend, four do not display a significant trend in either direction, and Poland shows a modest decline. We use a country fixed-effect dynamic panel data model to distinguish long- and short-term associations. The results show that a reduction in the proportion of young adults and regional inequalities decreases interregional migration whereas a rise in information technologies and net international migration increases interregional migration in the long term. Only regional income inequalities affect the intensity of migration in both the short and the long term. Although the different paces at which these factors evolve explain some of the heterogeneity in internal migration trends, they do not fully account for the downward trend in non-European countries. Panel time series are valuable for understanding internal migration trends and effort should be geared towards the inclusion of more countries, extended periods and additional explanatory variables.

中文翻译：

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了解经合组织国家的内部移民趋势

尽管国内移民水平的下降一直是学术界日益关注的焦点，但对强度增加或稳定的国家却鲜有关注。因此，不清楚为什么国内移民在某些国家下降，而在其他国家没有。本文试图通过确定 18 个经合组织国家内部移民趋势的变化并确定支撑这些变化的经济、人口和社会因素来解决这一差距。我们收集了从 1996 年到 2018 年的年度区域间移民强度的时间序列。我们发现所有非欧洲国家都报告呈下降趋势，而在欧洲，有 8 个国家呈上升趋势，其中 4 个国家在任一方向都没有显示出显着趋势，波兰则出现温和下降。我们使用国家固定效应动态面板数据模型来区分长期和短期关联。结果表明，年轻人比例的减少和区域不平等会减少区域间移徙，而信息技术和净国际移徙的增加从长远来看会增加区域间移徙。从短期和长期来看，只有区域收入不平等会影响移民强度。尽管这些因素演变的不同速度解释了国内移民趋势的一些异质性，但它们并不能完全解释非欧洲国家的下降趋势。小组时间序列对于了解内部移民趋势很有价值，应努力将更多国家纳入其中，