The paper investigates the triggers of arrears on debt in a full recourse euro area country. An extensive individual-level quarterly panel dataset enables quarterly arrears on debt to be tracked while controlling for individual specific heterogeneity. The estimations show that lower income and higher debt service ratios are associated with a higher probability of arrears, confirming the “ability to pay” hypothesis. The results reveal different debt repayment behaviour for housing and consumer loans over a business cycle. Newly taken housing loans exhibit a lower probability of arrears and the same applies to loans granted during the period of easy credit conditions and high real estate prices, indicating that housing credit boom has not contributed to the rise in arrears on debt. Newly taken consumer loans are related to a higher probability of arrears, suggesting that consumer loans have been used to alleviate financial difficulties.

中文翻译：

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在一个商业周期中拖欠债务的触发因素是什么？来自面板数据的证据

该论文调查了一个完全追索权欧元区国家债务拖欠的触发因素。广泛的个人层面季度面板数据集可以跟踪季度债务拖欠情况，同时控制个人特定的异质性。估计显示，较低的收入和较高的偿债比率与较高的欠款概率相关，证实了“支付能力”假设。结果揭示了在一个商业周期内住房和消费贷款的不同债务偿还行为。新发放的住房贷款拖欠概率较低，在宽松的信贷条件和高房价时期发放的贷款也是如此，这表明住房信贷的繁荣并没有导致债务拖欠的增加。