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An applied framework to estimate the direct economic impact of Marine Spatial Planning
Marine Policy ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-18 , DOI: 10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104443
Juan C. Surís-Regueiro , José L. Santiago , Xosé M. González-Martínez , M. Dolores Garza-Gil

The complex nature of the Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) requires the integration and consideration of multiple elements, ranging from the ecological and environmental to the socio-economic as well as the political, institutional or cultural. To succeed, the public policies demand techniques and tools that allow to evaluate the effects or impacts on the society. By applying an empirical approach, this paper presents a framework to evaluate the direct economic impacts linked to the implementation of MSP policies in three case studies: Belgium, Germany and Norway. The methodological procedure is sequenced in 4 phases: identification of the sectors involved, data collection, construction of counterfactual scenarios and estimate of impacts after consulting the stakeholders. With the application of this framework to the case studies, an estimate was made of the variations in the value of production for each marine sector that can be directly attributed to the implementation of the MSP. In general, they were positive in the three cases analysed. In the medium scenario, cumulative final direct impacts of € 1875 million were estimated in the German case (2010–2016 period), € 929 million in the Belgian case (2014–2016) and € 2262 million in the Norwegian case (2013–2016). These results can serve as the basis for further estimations of indirect and induced impacts of the implementation of spatial management policies in a blue economy context.



中文翻译:

估算海洋空间规划直接经济影响的应用框架

海洋空间规划(MSP)的复杂性要求整合和考虑多个要素,从生态和环境到社会经济以及政治,制度或文化。为了取得成功,公共政策需要能够评估社会影响或效果的技术和工具。通过采用经验方法,本文提出了一个框架,用于评估与比利时,德国和挪威这三个案例研究相关的与实施MSP政策相关的直接经济影响。方法程序分为四个阶段:确定相关部门,收集数据,构建反事实情节以及在咨询利益相关者后评估影响。将此框架应用于案例研究后,对每个海洋部门的产值变化进行了估算,这些变化可直接归因于《海洋保护方案》的实施。通常,在所分析的三个案例中它们都是阳性的。在中等情况下,在德国案例(2010-2016年)中,累计最终最终直接影响估计为18.75亿欧元,在比利时案例(2014-2016年)中为9.29亿欧元,在挪威案例(2013-2016年)中为22.62亿欧元)。这些结果可以作为进一步评估蓝色经济背景下空间管理政策实施的间接和诱发影响的基础。在德国案例(2010–2016年期间)中,累计最终最终直接影响估计为18.75亿欧元,在比利时案例(2014–2016年)中为9.29亿欧元,在挪威案例(2013–2016年)中为22.62亿欧元。这些结果可以作为进一步评估蓝色经济背景下空间管理政策实施的间接和诱发影响的基础。在德国案例(2010–2016年期间)中,累计最终最终直接影响估计为18.75亿欧元,在比利时案例(2014–2016年)中为9.29亿欧元,在挪威案例(2013–2016年)中为22.62亿欧元。这些结果可以作为进一步评估蓝色经济背景下空间管理政策实施的间接和诱发影响的基础。

更新日期:2021-02-18
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