Widespread declines in Atlantic and Pacific salmon (Salmo salar and Oncorhynchus spp.) have tracked recent climate changes, but managers still lack quantitative projections of the viability of any individual population in response to future climate change. To address this gap, we assembled a vast database of survival and other data for eight wild populations of threatened Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha). For each population, we evaluated climate impacts at all life stages and modeled future trajectories forced by global climate model projections. Populations rapidly declined in response to increasing sea surface temperatures and other factors across diverse model assumptions and climate scenarios. Strong density dependence limited the number of salmon that survived early life stages, suggesting a potentially efficacious target for conservation effort. Other solutions require a better understanding of the factors that limit survival at sea. We conclude that dramatic increases in smolt survival are needed to overcome the negative impacts of climate change for this threatened species.

大西洋和太平洋鲑鱼（Salmo salar和Oncorhynchus spp.）的普遍减少已经追踪了最近的气候变化，但管理人员仍然缺乏对任何个体种群应对未来气候变化的生存能力的定量预测。为了弥补这一差距，我们为 8 个受威胁的奇努克鲑鱼 ( O. tshawytscha）。对于每个人群，我们评估了所有生命阶段的气候影响，并模拟了全球气候模型预测所迫使的未来轨迹。由于海面温度升高以及各种模型假设和气候情景中的其他因素，人口迅速减少。强烈的密度依赖性限制了存活早期阶段的鲑鱼数量，这表明保护工作可能是有效的目标。其他解决方案需要更好地了解限制海上生存的因素。我们得出的结论是，要克服气候变化对这一受威胁物种的负面影响，需要大幅提高黑鲑的存活率。