Assessment of habitat suitability provides natural resource managers with insights on the quality and spatial distribution of habitat for wildlife species. However, habitat suitability models only provide information on current habitat parameters, and do not consider changes in habitat due to forest succession and disturbances. Habitat potential models have been developed by identifying habitat types and their successional trajectories to provide insights on how landscapes change with time. We developed habitat suitability index (HSI) models and habitat potential models for elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) on public and private lands within the Michigan elk range (1,220 km²) in northeastern lower Michigan, USA. Our objective was to demonstrate how integration of habitat suitability and habitat potential models can provide spatiotemporal insights on wildlife habitat. When constructing public‐lands models, we used state forest compartment‐inventory data to identify cover types important to elk, and assigned suitability values (0 = low, 1 = high) to each cover type for elk life requisites (i.e., spring food, winter food, winter thermal cover). Additionally, we modified suitability values based on stand conditions acquired from state forest inventory records (e.g., stand size, percent canopy closure, age of aspen [Populus spp.]). For our private‐lands models, we used satellite imagery to classify cover types and assigned suitability values to cover types for each elk life requisite, and modified values based on percent canopy closure for winter thermal cover. Elk habitat potential was modeled by delineating habitat types by overlaying digital spatial data layers (soils, land‐type associations, vegetation) and identifying successional trajectories using habitat classification guides and literature. We assigned suitability values to each habitat type for life requisites at early to late successional stages. The highest suitability value of each habitat type's successional stage determined the habitat potential for each habitat type. Our winter thermal cover HSI model indicated several large areas (5–13 km²) of high suitability (i.e., lowland conifers) in the southern third of our study area. Our winter food HSI model indicated a heterogeneous arrangement of high suitability areas (hardwoods, upland conifers, aspen) throughout our study area. Our spring food HSI model indicated few areas of high suitability (openings) primarily on private lands. Our habitat potential models indicated high potential for each elk life requisite across the elk range. Comparisons between current elk habitat suitability and habitat potential identify key areas where managers can maximize management efforts for elk in Michigan. Areas determined to have high habitat potential (e.g., mature aspen stands) may become focus areas if they currently have low habitat suitability. Conversely, managers can avoid committing resources to areas with low habitat potential. Integrating habitat suitability and potential models provides insights on how wildlife habitats may respond to forest succession, land management practices, and disturbances, and ultimately help natural resource professionals prioritize and meet a diversity of wildlife management goals. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.

中文翻译：

---

野生动物栖息地适应性与栖息地潜力模型整合的应用

栖息地适宜性评估为自然资源管理者提供了有关野生动植物物种栖息地质量和空间分布的见识。但是，生境适应性模型仅提供有关当前生境参数的信息，而没有考虑由于森林演替和干扰而引起的生境变化。通过确定栖息地类型及其演替轨迹来开发人居潜力模型，以提供有关景观如何随时间变化的见识。我们开发了密歇根州麋鹿范围（1,220 km ^2）内公共和私人土地上的麋鹿（Cervus elaphus nelsoni）栖息地适应性指数（HSI）模型和栖息地潜力模型。）位于美国东北部的密歇根州下部。我们的目标是证明栖息地适应性和栖息地潜力模型的集成如何提供有关野生动植物栖息地的时空见解。在构建公共土地模型时，我们使用州森林隔间清单数据来识别对麋鹿重要的植被类型，并为每种麋鹿的生活必需品（例如春季食物，冬季食品，冬季保暖套）。此外，我们修改的基础上，从国家森林资源清查记录（例如，展台规模，百分比郁闭，白杨的年龄[收购立地条件适宜值杨树。]）。对于我们的私有土地模型，我们使用卫星图像对覆盖类型进行了分类，并为每种麋鹿的生活需要分配了适用性值以覆盖类型，并根据冬季热覆盖的冠层封闭百分比对值进行了修改。通过覆盖数字空间数据层（土壤，土地类型协会，植被）并使用栖息地分类指南和文献来确定演替轨迹，来描绘栖息地类型，从而对麋鹿栖息地潜力进行建模。我们为每个生境类型在早期到后期的生命阶段分配了适合性值。每种生境类型的演替阶段的最高适用性值确定了每种生境类型的生境潜力。我们的HSI冬季热覆盖模型表明了几个大区域（5-13 km ²）在我们研究区域的南部三分之一具有很高的适应性（即低地针叶树）。我们的冬季食品HSI模型表明，在整个研究区域中，高适应性区域（硬木，山地针叶树，白杨木）的分布不均。我们的春季食品HSI模型表明，主要在私人土地上，很少有高适应性区域（开口）。我们的栖息地潜力模型显示了整个麋鹿范围内每种麋鹿生命必需品的高潜力。当前麋鹿栖息地的适宜性和栖息地潜力之间的比较确定了关键区域，管理人员可以在这些区域最大化管理密歇根州麋鹿的工作。如果目前具有低生境适应性的地区被确定为具有较高生境潜力的区域（例如，成熟的白杨林林分）可能会成为重点区域。相反，管理者可以避免将资源投入到具有低生境潜力的地区。整合栖息地的适宜性和潜在模型，可以提供有关野生生物栖息地如何响应森林演替，土地管理实践和干扰的见解，并最终帮助自然资源专业人员确定优先次序并实现多种野生生物管理目标。©2021野生动物协会。