Recent changes in the near-surface air temperature (nSAT) in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) suggests that the absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula may be coming to end. To examine this, the long-term annual and seasonal variability of the nSAT at eight Antarctic stations located in the AP are analyzed using available data from the SCAR Reader database, complemented with data from the Chilean Weather Service (Frei and O'Higgins). An exponential filter was applied to the original annual and seasonal mean series to obtain a decadal-like variation of the nSAT. A stacked and the standardized anomaly of the nSAT record was constructed to examine the average regional behavior in the AP. Cumulative sum (CUSUM) and changepoint analysis were applied through the stacked nSAT series to highlight significant changes caused by variation in weather and climate. The CUSUM and bootstrapping analysis revealed two statistically significant breaking points during the 1978–2020 period. The first one occurred in the late nineties ending a warming period and making the beginning of a cooling period; the second one may have taken place in the mid-2010s and could mark the end of the warming pause. These trends appear to be consistent with the changes observed in the large-scale climate modes (i.e., the Antarctic Annular Mode – AAO).

最近南极半岛 (AP) 近地表气温 (nSAT) 的变化表明，南极半岛 21 世纪没有变暖的情况可能即将结束。为了检验这一点，使用 SCAR Reader 数据库中的可用数据以及智利气象局（Frei 和 O'Higgins）的数据，对位于 AP 的八个南极站的 nSAT 的长期年度和季节性变化进行了分析。指数滤波器应用于原始的年度和季节性平均序列，以获得 nSAT 的类似十年的变化。构建了 nSAT 记录的堆叠和标准化异常，以检查 AP 中的平均区域行为。通过堆叠的 nSAT 系列应用累积总和 (CUSUM) 和变化点分析，以突出天气和气候变化引起的显着变化。CUSUM 和 bootstrapping 分析揭示了 1978-2020 年期间的两个具有统计意义的断点。第一次发生在 90 年代后期，结束了变暖期并开始了降温期；第二次可能发生在 2010 年代中期，可能标志着变暖停顿的结束。这些趋势似乎与在大尺度气候模式（即南极环形模式 – AAO）中观察到的变化一致。第一次发生在 90 年代后期，结束了变暖期并开始了降温期；第二次可能发生在 2010 年代中期，可能标志着变暖停顿的结束。这些趋势似乎与在大尺度气候模式（即南极环形模式 – AAO）中观察到的变化一致。第一次发生在 90 年代后期，结束了变暖期并开始了降温期；第二次可能发生在 2010 年代中期，可能标志着变暖停顿的结束。这些趋势似乎与在大尺度气候模式（即南极环形模式 – AAO）中观察到的变化一致。