The present study investigates the performance of a regional numerical weather prediction model; namely, the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) in the prediction of the tropical cyclone (TC) trajectories for varying intensities of the storm. A total of 8 TCs formed over the Northern Indian Ocean from 2017 to 2019 are chosen for the evaluation of the COSMO model. The central pressure (\(P_\mathrm{Central}\)), pressure drop (\(\varDelta P\)), and maximum sustained surface wind speed (MSW) simulated by the COSMO model are validated against the concurrent observations from India Meteorological Department. The forecasted mean track errors are 95 km for a lead time of 24 h, whereas it was about 140 km for a lead time of 48 h. The mean initial positional error in identification of the storm was about 50 km. The intensity of a storm is underestimated in terms of \(\varDelta P\) and MSW, especially for a lead time of 0–24 h, whereas the model shows a consistent overestimation for a lead time of more than 24 h. During the initial stage of a storm, when its intensity is categorized as a Deep Depression, we notice a maximum amount of uncertainty in the prediction of cyclone track. The COSMO model yields improved predictability of the tracks for storms categorized as Very Severe Cyclonic Storms. As the intensity of a storm increases from a Deep Depression to a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, the track errors associated with model simulations tend to decrease. Results of the present study illustrate the predictability of TCs from COSMO in terms of the trajectory and intensity of the storm.

本研究调查了区域数值天气预报模型的性能。即小规模模型联盟（COSMO），用于预测风暴强度不同的热带气旋（TC）轨迹。从2017年到2019年，在北印度洋上形成的总共8个TC被选择用于COSMO模型的评估。中心压力（\（P_ \ mathrm {Central} \）），压降（\（\ varDelta P \）），并根据印度气象部门的同步观测结果验证了COSMO模型模拟的最大持续地表风速（MSW）。预测的平均航迹误差在24小时的前置时间内为95 km，而在48 h的前置时间内约为140 km。识别风暴的平均初始位置误差约为50 km。根据\（\ varDelta P \）低估了风暴的强度和MSW，尤其是提前期为0–24 h，而模型显示了超过24 h的一致高估。在风暴的初始阶段，当其强度被归类为“深陷”时，我们注意到旋风径迹的预测中存在最大的不确定性。COSMO模型提高了归类为“极强气旋风暴”的风暴的航迹的可预测性。随着风暴强度从“深陷”上升到“强烈旋风”，与模型模拟相关的航迹误差趋于减小。本研究结果说明了COSMO TCs的可预测性，包括风暴的轨迹和强度。