ABSTRACT

The Supreme Leader has a significant role in determining political life in Iran. The analysis of this role is an integral part of studying Iranian domestic politics and foreign policy. The succession issue has been of particular importance and subject to numerous academic endeavours after speculations of current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s failing health. The focus of these studies centres on the personalities of the potential candidates for this eminent position. This paper departs from mainstream research and analyzes the structural factors that guide the process of choosing the Supreme Leader in Iran. The study of the historical context in the designation process of Iran’s two Supreme Leaders, Ayatollah Khomeini and Ayatollah Khamenei, provides a more comprehensive understanding of the position and role of the next Supreme Leader. The similarities between the selection of the previous Leaders, such as similar external pressures and domestic influences, highlight structural elements that will affect the forthcoming process. This paper identifies the structure of the political system and the national security apparatus as the major determinants in selecting the future Leader in Iran.

摘要

最高领导人在决定伊朗的政治生活中起着重要作用。对这一角色的分析是研究伊朗国内政治和外交政策的组成部分。在对现任最高领导人阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊（Ayatollah Ali Khamenei）当前健康状况不佳的猜测之后，继任问题就显得尤为重要，并且需要进行大量的学术努力。这些研究的重点在于该职位的潜在候选人的个性。本文从主流研究出发，分析了指导伊朗最高领导人choosing选过程的结构性因素。对伊朗两位最高领导人阿亚图拉·霍梅尼和阿亚图拉·哈梅内伊任命过程中的历史背景的研究，使人们对下一任最高领导人的地位和作用有了更全面的了解。前任领导人的selection选之间的相似之处，例如相似的外部压力和国内影响，凸显了将影响即将到来的进程的结构性因素。本文确定了政治体系和国家安全机构的结构，这是选择伊朗未来领导人的主要决定因素。