The deformations of ultrahigh arch dams can comprehensively indicate the dynamic variations of their structural behavior to judge the normal or not for timely discovering anomalies. First, the panel data features on the deformation behavior are extracted to effectively indicate the overall structural evolution of the Jinping I arch dam combing with the time series and the cross‐section series. Afterwards, a regression panel model (RPM) on the multi‐dimensional variables is proposed to model the deformation panel data consisted of multi‐monitoring points synchronously. Subsequently, an innovative functional relationship between the measured values and the real‐time risk probabilistic function is established due to the RPM estimation accuracy. In order to estimate the risk probability of the whole arch dam, the Copula function is used to build a multivariate joint probability distribution function to indicate the correlation among the random variables. The proposed methods are validated by an application on the Jinping I arch dam to evaluate its risk probability, which explores a novel approach for the arch dam safety assessment.

中文翻译：

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基于变形行为回归面板模型的超高拱坝风险概率评估

超高拱坝的变形可以全面表明其结构行为的动态变化，以判断是否正常，以便及时发现异常。首先，提取变形行为的面板数据特征，以结合时间序列和横截面序列有效地指示锦屏一号拱坝的整体结构演变。然后，提出了基于多维变量的回归面板模型（RPM），以同步建模由多个监测点组成的变形面板数据。随后，由于RPM估计的准确性，在测量值和实时风险概率函数之间建立了创新的函数关系。为了估算整个拱坝的风险概率，Copula函数用于构建多元联合概率分布函数，以指示随机变量之间的相关性。通过在锦屏一号拱坝上的应用评估其风险概率，验证了所提出的方法，为拱坝安全性评估探索了一种新方法。