Quarantine measure is a commonly used nonpharmaceutical intervention during the outbreak of infectious diseases. A key problem for implementing quarantine measure is to determine the duration of the quarantine. Different from the existing methods that determine a constant quarantine duration for everyone, we develop an individualized quarantine rule that suggests different quarantine durations for individuals with different characteristics. The proposed quarantine rule is optimal in the sense that it minimizes the average quarantine duration of uninfected people with the constraint that the probability of symptom presentation for infected people attains the given value closing to 1. The optimal solution for the quarantine duration is obtained and estimated by some statistical methods with application to analyzing COVID-19 data.

中文翻译：

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用于 COVID-19 数据分析的传染病最佳隔离期的确定和估计

检疫措施是传染病暴发期间常用的非药物干预措施。实施隔离措施的一个关键问题是确定隔离的持续时间。与为每个人确定恒定隔离时间的现有方法不同，我们开发了一个个性化的隔离规则，为具有不同特征的个人建议不同的隔离时间。所提出的隔离规则是最优的，因为它最小化了未感染者的平均隔离持续时间，约束条件是感染者出现症状的概率达到接近 1 的给定值。获得并估计了隔离持续时间的最优解通过一些统计方法应用于分析 COVID-19 数据。