Extreme weather outcomes are a multi-dimensional function of interacting physical processes. Actual compound events correspond to particular specific historical realisations of these coupled processes. But due to their intrinsic stochastic nature, they might have led to different outcomes. Historical meteorological studies tend to focus on explaining what actually happened, rather than on considering the phase space of other possibilities. In contrast with extreme event catalogues, information about near misses and proximity to tipping points is not systematically collated. Consequently, stakeholder awareness of such high risk system states is limited. The exploration of alternative realisations provides a counterfactual perspective on compound weather risk, which broadens understanding of extreme weather events, especially in respect of severe impact consequences. This perspective would be an insightful supplement to statistical studies of extreme compound events.

极端天气结果是相互作用的物理过程的多维功能。实际的复合事件对应于这些耦合过程的特定特定历史实现。但是由于它们固有的随机性，它们可能导致不同的结果。历史气象学研究倾向于集中于解释实际发生的事情，而不是考虑其他可能性的阶段空间。与极端事件目录相反，没有系统地整理有关未命中和接近临界点的信息。因此，利益相关者对这种高风险系统状态的意识是有限的。对替代实现的探索为复合天气风险提供了反事实观点，从而拓宽了对极端天气事件的理解，特别是在严重影响方面。这种观点将对极端复合事件的统计研究提供有见地的补充。