ABSTRACT

In this paper, we analyse the main factors explaining the profitability (ROA) of Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) in Peru from 2011 to 2107. We apply three wrapper techniques to asample of 168 Peruvians MFIs and 69 attributes obtained from MIX Market database. After running the algorithms M5ʹ, knearest neighbours (KNN) and Random Forest, we find that the M5ʹ algorithm provides the best fit for predicting ROA. Particularly, the key variable of the regression tree is the percentage of expenses over assets and, depending on its value, it is followed by net income after taxes and before donations, or profit margins.

中文翻译：

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应用基于包装的变量选择技术来预测小额信贷机构的盈利能力：来自秘鲁的证据

摘要

在本文中，我们分析了解释2011年至2107年秘鲁小额信贷机构（MFI）的获利能力（ROA）的主要因素。我们采用三种包装技术对168个秘鲁小额信贷机构和从MIX Market数据库获得的69个属性进行了抽样。在运行算法M5ʹ，近邻邻居（KNN）和随机森林之后，我们发现M5ʹ算法为预测ROA提供了最佳拟合。特别是，回归树的关键变量是支出占资产的百分比，根据其价值，其后是税后和捐赠前的净收入或利润率。