ABSTRACT

This article asks the question whether the Arab Spring protests have had a transformative impact on the political regimes of the countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). Unlike in the Middle East and North Africa, the protests that took place in the CCA region after 2011 did not result in regime changes. By analysing the political developments in the CCA region between the period of 2011 and 2014, this article argues that rather than encouraging democratic changes, the Arab Spring protests stimulated the learning process of authoritarian rulers in the CCA region by showing the impact of the social media for political mobilization and consequently regime survival. As such, they incentivized the regimes to increase repression, targeting not only the protestors, but also media and the Internet freedom.

摘要

本文提出一个问题，即“阿拉伯之春”抗议活动是否对高加索和中亚（CCA）国家的政治政权产生了变革性影响。与中东和北非不同，2011年后在CCA地区发生的抗议活动并未导致政权更替。通过分析2011年至2014年期间CCA地区的政治发展，本文认为，“阿拉伯之春”抗议活动不鼓励民主变革，而是通过展示社交媒体的影响来刺激CCA地区威权统治者的学习过程进行政治动员，从而维持政权生存。因此，他们激励政权加强镇压，不仅针对抗议者，而且针对媒体和互联网自由。