The Karabakh region and surrounding territories—occupied by Armenia for the last 26 years—represented a classic “frozen” ethno‐territorial conflict in the post‐Soviet world. The conflict erupted in September 2020, and Azerbaijan managed to liberate the occupied territories. This article examines the causes and consequences of the recent Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. After summarizing the historical origins of the conflict, the article offers an analysis of four main causes that renewed hostilities. The 44‐day war resulted in a military victory for Azerbaijan and catastrophic defeat for Armenia. The outcome not only shook up the Armenian political establishment, but also revealed a contentious dimension in the alignment between Turkey and Russia. The article concludes by analyzing the motives of Turkey's extensive involvement in the conflict and the Russian‐imposed truce deal, both of which are likely once again to freeze the dynamics that hold the central parties hostage to Russia.

中文翻译：

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第二次卡拉巴赫战争：俄罗斯与土耳其？

卡拉巴赫地区及周边地区（过去26年被亚美尼亚占领）代表了后苏联世界中典型的“冻结”民族领土冲突。冲突于2020年9月爆发，阿塞拜疆设法解放了被占领土。本文探讨了亚美尼亚与阿塞拜疆之间最近的卡拉巴赫战争的成因和后果。在总结了冲突的历史根源之后，本文对重新引发敌对行动的四个主要原因进行了分析。这场为期44天的战争使阿塞拜疆获得了军事胜利，亚美尼亚获得了灾难性的失败。这一结果不仅动摇了亚美尼亚的政治地位，而且还揭示了土耳其和俄罗斯之间结盟的有争议的层面。文章最后通过分析土耳其的动机