Despite a rise in the number of competitive far right parties leading up to the European refugee crisis, some centre right parties achieved or maintained electoral success. We argue that some centre right parties recognize the electoral opportunity for radical right parties to exploit the refugee crisis for electoral gains and strategically adopt hard-line positions on immigration to maintain and even increase their electoral success. We test our theory of strategic positioning using data on party competition in national parliamentary elections across 28 EU member states at the start of the refugee crisis. Strategic positioning appears to be a particularly successful choice for centre right parties. The quantitative analysis is supported by case studies in Western Europe of Austria and The Netherlands. Whilst strategic positioning may produce short-term electoral success, it also mainstreams radical immigration positions in contemporary European politics, with negative implications for liberal democracy in Europe.

中文翻译：

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迫在眉睫的欧盟难民危机：右翼政党竞争与战略定位

尽管导致欧洲难民危机的极右翼政党数量增加，但一些中右翼政党在选举中取得或保持成功。我们认为，一些中右翼政党认识到激进右翼政党利用难民危机谋取选举利益的选举机会，并战略性地在移民问题上采取强硬立场，以维持甚至提高他们的选举成功率。我们测试我们的战略定位理论使用难民危机开始时 28 个欧盟成员国在全国议会选举中政党竞争的数据。对于中右翼政党来说，战略定位似乎是一个特别成功的选择。定量分析得到了奥地利和荷兰西欧案例研究的支持。虽然战略定位可能会产生短期的选举成功，但它也将激进的移民立场纳入当代欧洲政治的主流，对欧洲的自由民主产生负面影响。